I'm not sure what specific sections you refer to with regards to bias and ridiculous assumptions, but I agree with the basic premise - that a slow motion bank run is occurring in Greece and Ireland.
More links about slow-motion bank run in Greece: 30 May: https://coveringdelta.wordpress.com...ybe-but-the-ecb-is-unlikely-to-let-them-fail/ "Has a Bank Run Started in Greece? Maybe, but the ECB is unlikely to let them fail." 6 June: https://coveringdelta.wordpress.com...-government-begins-to-pull-its-own-money-out/ "Greek Bank Deposits Decline for 4th Consecutive Month as the Greek Government Begins to Pull itâs Own Money Out" http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gr...pril-central-government-withdraws-another-43- "Greek Household Bank Deposits Drop By $3.5 Billion In April, As The "Central Government" Withdraws Another $4.3 Billlion" Source data from Bank of Greece: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogDocumentEn/Deposits_sector.xls Google suggestion for further discussion: Simon Ward of Henderson such as this article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1270153/Fears-grow-Greece-bank-run.html from 30 April 2010
More recent article (8 June 2011); http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/08/greek-banks-under-siege/ Title: Greek banks under siege snippet: "If Europe didn't have enough problems, Greece now has a full-fledged bank run on its hands. "Household deposits at Greek banks have dropped in five of the past six months, falling by a total of 12 billion euros ($17.6 billion), according to Bank of Greece data. http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogDocumentEn/Deposits_sector.xls "Two-year deposits tumbled 8% from a year ago in April and savings deposits plunged at a 16% year-over-year clip in March, notes Graham Turner of GFC Economics in London. A restructuring "will not be deferred indefinitely if Greek depositors continue to vote with their feet," Turner writes in a note to clients Tuesday. "
The source data for Greek bank deposits is an Excel file that can be found here: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogDocumentEn/Deposits_sector.xls There is a link to this Excel file on this Bank of Greece web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Statistics/monetary/deposits.aspx *** Friday 03 June Moody's downgrades Greek banks http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110603/bs_afp/greeceeconomyfinancebankingratingsmoodys_20110603080751 The ratings agency also said Greek banks would be exposed to a potential erosion of their funding sources owing to a potential acceleration in deposit withdrawals and uncertainties regarding continued access to European Central Bank (ECB) liquidity. Moody's downgraded National Bank of Greece SA (NBG), EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (Eurobank) Alpha Bank AE (Alpha) Piraeus Bank SA (Piraeus), Agricultural Bank of Greece (ATE) and Attica Bank SA to B3.
"The silent ongoing run on Greek banks" http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/06/the-silent-ongoing-run-on-greek-banks.html The Greek banking system has a relatively low loan-to-deposit ratio of about 120%, well below Irish and Portuguese levels. But over the last year, deposits have fallen by â¬44 billion, and Greek banks have been shut out of the repo market, the interbank market and bond markets. That has left a â¬135 billion funding gap, mostly filled by the European Central Bank.
And now S&P joins the party, downgrading Greek banks to CCC: "S&P Downgrades Four Main Greek Banks From B To CCC On Deposit Flight Concerns And, Well, General Bankruptcy Fears" http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp...it-flight-concerns-and-well-general-bankruptc We are of the view that Standard & Poor's rated Greek banks' financial profiles are exposed to significantly heightened risks as a result of deterioration in Greece's creditworthiness and Greek depositors' perceptions of a possible government debt restructuring. As a consequence, we are lowering our long-term counterparty credit ratings to 'CCC' from 'B' on the four Greek banks we rate. The negative outlook reflects the possibility that the banks could be downgraded again if we believe the banks are likely to default on their obligations as defined by our criteria. In our view, outflows of domestic deposits could conceivably continue to intensify depending on the public's view of the impact that Greece's deteriorating creditworthiness may have on the banking system. The downgrade also reflects the significant risks to the Greek banks' capital bases that we believe may arise should the government restructure some, or all, of its debt. Thus we may downgrade the ratings if we come to the view that rising pressure on the banks' retail funding bases is likely to lead to an outflow of deposits that may end up exceeding their liquidity cushions available for the ECB discount facility and liquidity from other extraordinary mechanisms is not available. This could lead us to conclude that rated Greek banks are likely to default as defined under our criteria.
This FT Alphaville article: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/15/594946/the-humble-greek-depositor-and-the-ecb/ contains a link to the official S&P statement regarding the Greek bank downgrade: http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/articles/en/eu/?assetID=1245306332279
"Greek banks and the leaked options paper" http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2011/06/greek-banks-and-the-leaked-options-paper/ June 15, 2011 10:40 am To give Brussels Blog readers more insight into the thinking of the European Commission, which produced the memo outlining the scenario for eurozone ministers â titled âOptions for private-sector involvement in financing a macro-economic adjustment programme for Greece: Note for the Europgroupâ â we thought weâd post a few relevant exceprts. .... "A PSI operation would elevate the risk of a deposit run. The banking system has already been contending with elevated deposit outflows, due early in the year to the recession but more recently also reflecting fears about the impact that a disorderly sovereign debt restructuring could have on bank solvency. Moving towards maturity extension would likely lead to some additional deposit outflows, with the risk of a full-blown bank-run."
"The humble Greek (and Argentine) depositor" http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/17/598326/the-humble-greek-and-argentine-depositor/ This article shows that the pattern of Greek bank deposits is similar to that of Argentina bank deposits pre-default.