This swing trading method is devised to trade in the direction of the primary trend using bollinger bands,20 SMA and slow stoch 8/3/3.You will buy or wait on sidelines in uptrend and sell or wait on side line in down trends. When there is no specific trend and the price is moving side ways you can sell near upper Band or buy near lower band.Here I have enclosed the chart of USD/JPY pair.The trend is clearly down.The trend is identified using 20 SMA. The price is below 20 SMA in the USD/JPY Weekly chart and the 20 SMA is sloping down.Hence the trend is considered "DOWN".Here you will be selling rallies or waiting on side lines using lower time frame charts.The weekly chart is attached for readers reference.Muraleedharan
You have to see the lower time frame ie Daily chart and see where the price action is.Whether it is near the Upper Band,20 SMA.What is the trend in the daily chart. Here the trend is sideways with a down bias.Hence your strategy will be selling rallies.You have to see 4 hour and hourly chart also before shorting.These charts will be given in the subsequent posts.You will have to look to lower time frames to refine your entry points.Muraleedharan. http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
Given below is the hourly chart of USDJPY. You have to see the chart Weekly,Daily,4Hour and Hourly. Weekly and daily chart to be used to identify the trend. Dealer chart should be looked for the set-up.Following is one of the many set up using this method. Conditions 1 Price pierced the UB of dealer chart and closed inside the chart. 2. A dark cloud candle stick pattern is formed on the UB. 3) You should see the LP of Signal candle. 4) Slow stoch in oversold zone above reading 80. Trigger conditions(This is to be seen in hourly chart) When the Lower Price of the signal candle breaks down enter trade.Stop loss above UB .Target price 20 pips above LB of Dealer chart.This has a good risk to reward ratio also.When similar set up and entry conditions occur in the subsequent sessions of USD/JPY I shall post the Chart for readers reference and understanding of this method.Muraleedharan. http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
The Weekly chart as on 24th January 2009 of USDJPY is attached below for the immediate reference of the readers.The trend on the weekly chart is showing down for the price is trading below 20 SMA and the slant of the 20 SMA is also down.The forthcoming weeks trading strategy is to "Sell or stand aside" till the price on the weekly chart breaks above the weekly 20 SMA 96.66 and closes above 20 SMA on weekly chart.I will make subsequent postings on this when the selling set-up and entry conditions occur in the lower time frame charts.Good trading for my readers in forthcoming week. Muraleedharan http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
The price pierced the Upper Band of the dealer chart on 27th January 2009 and made a HP of 90.06.The UB is 89.88.The price closed inside the UB making an engulfing bearish candle stick pattern.This is a good set-up to short.In the earlier posting weekly chart is given showing the primary trend as down also indicated the strategy to sell rallies or stand aside.Now the price has rallied and made a selling set-up.We can look into the hourly chart and can short this opportunity.The dealer chart is attached for the reference of the readers.Muraleedharan http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
In the hourly chart also the price pierced the Upper Band and reversed forming a dark clod cover.On the break-down of the LP of the dark cloud cover is an entry trigger with 5 pips on the HP as the stop loss and LB price of the dealer chart as the profit target exit.This will give a good risk to reward ratio.The hourly chart is attached herewith for the reference of the readers. Muraleedharan http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
The USD/JPY Dealer chart is attached below.The price rallied up to 90.74.The price pierced the UB and closed inside the band.A harami candlestick pattern is formed.The LP of the pattern is 90.20. The price broken down the LP 90.20 and this is a good trigger for entry with a tight stop loss.The slow stoch is reading 83 in the over bought zone and is poised for a bearish cross.The strategy is to sell or stand aside, till the 20 SMA resistance on the weekly chart is broken upwards conclusively with a close above 20 SMA. Good trading to all my readers. Muraleedharan http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
USD/JPY chart for the month of January 2009 is attached below for the ready reference of my readers.The reading for the month of this pair is HP 94.63 LP 87.20 CP 89.94 OP 90.73. The Pivot Point is 90.59 R1 is 93.98 and S1 is 86.55.This month the JPY was stronger by 79 pips against USD. A tweezer bottom is formed in the monthly, in December 2008 the LP was 87.16 and in the month of January 2009 was 87.20.This pair was closing bearish from the month of September 2008 and a tweezer bottom candle pattern is formed now.You have set your goal for the month of February before the beginning of the month.A goal of 400 pips earning for the coming month is a reachable and reasonable target.You can also break-down this target into weekly targets of 100 pips each week.You have to evaluate ,your performance against this measurable goal ,each day, week and month.You also have to evaluate your system performance against this goal to fix up weaknesses and strengths of the system. Good trading for all my readers.Muraleedharan http://currencycentral.blogspot.com
Band Swing Trading? I use the Swing Band Trading Method,shown below.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMlc6Vw2tg8