Baltic Dry Index down for 8 weeks: should you care ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ASusilovic, Aug 5, 2010.

  1. ptrjon


    the global economy is recovering- stop buying guns and spam, and buy DRYS.

  2. DRYS is in a downtrend which is not even remotely threatened. The black horiz. line in chart is the nearest trend reversal fulcrum for NOW.

    No doubt you're all tickled pink by the 1-month rally? But look down at the volume. Its a soft cock. Then look to the left for the last 3 yrs of power-downtrend.

    Things can change as per TREND RULE#2 ... the extant trend can change without notice.

    but for now,

    S H O R T is the way to be until further notice.


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  3. ptrjon


    I am long DRYS. So I didn't make money this month? But when I get to the black line, then I'll start making money?
  4. ptrjon


    strict technical analysis is great if it works for you- but the fact is that if someone made a trade based on value a month ago, they could close out a nice 50+% gain right now. You don't lose anything by staying away from the stock, but shorting this would have hurt you badley if you "traded the trend" a month ago.
  5. benwm


    Has anyone run correlation analysis on BDI changes against other commodity price changes?
  6. The BDI is not a commodity but the value of the service of carrying goods by dry ships, called freight rates and it is based on some rather complicated calculation by data provided by major shippers and brokers for specific routes.
  7. benwm


    understood not a commodity but would expect some +ve correlation with other commodity prices given that both influenced by general strength in the economy and demand from China especially...Also when BDI changes up/down it tends to continue in the same direction for days and days, trending up each day or down each day for a couple of weeks, or so it seems...

    So if there is a strong lead/lad relationship between BDI and certain commodity prices then there will be some useful information to glean whenever BDI changes direction.

    Maybe a research project for someone..
  8. #10     Aug 5, 2010