Baja Flow And Midwest Rain Chances ( Saturday 07/14/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 17, 2012.

  1. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3865298c0138855bb22b0157 .

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    Saturday 07/14/2012

    Baja Flow And Midwest Rain Chances

    Large-scale weather features may be coming together to offer the best chance for significant rain in the Midwest that we have seen so far this historic drought season. Here's the list:
    1) -- and very important: Satellite water vapor imagery shows a good buildup of moisture moving in over the Baja peninsula south of California. This is the southwestern monsoon flow that goes on every year about this time, and it is impressive. Not only is the moisture moving into the southwestern U.S., but it is also crossing the Rockies into the western High Plains. Already this weekend, there are flash flood bulletins in effect throughout the Great Basin and the Desert Southwest. These bulletins are further indication of the strength of this moisture inflow. As the Baja-origin moisture moves farther north and east, it helps to increase the high-level moisture supply in the atmosphere over the Midwest.

    2)-- Gulf moisture inflow into the interior U.S. is increasing as indicated by heavy rains in southeastern Texas this week--around 14 inches in the Houston area for example. We are also seeing dew point values continue to be quite high, in the mid 60 degree Fahrenheit range, further indicating that there is more moisture buildup in the atmosphere.

    3) -- There are also upper-air disturbances moving Northwest-Southeast out of the Canadian Prairies on a consistent schedule. It's these little atmospheric ripples that can punch a hole in the hot-air dome and combine with the available moisture to generate thunderstorms. It is possible that one or several of these disturbances could "catch" that building moisture from the two sources--the Gulf at lower levels, and the southwestern Baja flow at the upper levels--and start a round of rain for the Midwest by midweek.

    This comment is a contrary opinion, but the features outlined above are worth noting. There is another important historical weather note to keep in mind as well, and that is--the 1988 drought broke in mid-July with a series of rains under similar conditions.

    Bottom line--features going on this weekend are leading to the best chance for rain to bring some drought relief to at least part of the central U.S. that we have had for a long time.

    Bryce

    Twitter @BAndersonDTN

    Posted at 6:59AM CDT 07/14/12 by Bryce Anderson

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    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.