Baffled

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mattjclark, Aug 22, 2002.

  1. Marty Schwartz(aka PitBull) is majority owner of a horse running in this weekends Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

    Saint Marden...current odds 20-1

    Notes
    * Has won two races from four lifetime starts.
    * Broke maiden by 7 ¾ lengths at Delaware Park in a wire-to-wire performance.
    * Last start was at the current Saratoga meeting where he defeated older horses going 1 1/8 miles, in a non-winners of a race other than condition with Jerry Bailey aboard. Won easily by 7 ½ lengths and earned a career best Beyer speed figure of 101.
    * Bred by Brylynn Farm Inc. in Florida.
    * Sold for $475,000 at the 2000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August Sale.

    Breeding
    * Saint Ballado—The Administrator (Afleet).

    Career Record
    2-1-1 from four starts with earnings of $61,400.


    Stakes Victories
    * None.

    Owner: Martin Schwartz and Dennis Drazin
    * Have not started a horse in the Travers Stakes.
    * Martin Schwartz owns 75 percent on Saint Marden. Dennis Drazin owns 25 percent.
    * The name Marden is Mar for Schwartz and Den for Drazin.
    * Schwartz is a trader on the stock market for himself and has been involved in that industry for 30 years.
    * Drazin is a lawyer in New Jersey who works directly with Monmouth Park racetrack.
    * Schwartz has been an owner for 2½ years. He owns Grade 1-placed Bowman’s Band.
    * Schwartz’s introduction to racing was as an avid fan that frequently attended New York racing for the past 30 years. He has a wife named Audrey.


    Jockey: Mike Smith
    * Has won the Travers Stakes twice: Holy Bull in 1994 and Coronado's Quest in 1998. He is 2-0-1 from eight Travers mounts.
    * Eclipse Award winner as Top Jockey in 1993 and 1994.
    * Rides regularly in Southern California circuit.


    Trainer: Michael R. Matz
    * Has not started a horse in the Travers Stakes.
    * Was a world-renowned equestrian in the world of show jumping before becoming a trainer of racehorses.
    * Competed for several years in world-class competitions, including the Pan American Games four times and the Olympics three times. In 1996, Matz won a silver medal for team USA as a member of the equestrian team.
    * Wife Dorothy, is related to successful breeders: sister Helen Alexander and mother Helen Groves.
    * Matz is in his fifth year of training. He has saddled several good horses, including stakes winners Lady Dora, Batique, Camella and Bowman’s Band. He keeps horses in training at Delaware Park, Fair Hill Training Center and a small string in Saratoga for the meet.
    * Matz has five children and he and his wife are expecting their sixth, a boy, at the end of September.
     
    #31     Aug 22, 2002
  2. Who's the fave in this race and what are the odds?

    -triple

    ----------------------

    "real eyes see real lies"
     
    #32     Aug 22, 2002
  3. so if I go to saratoga this weekend I can get

    "Buzzy"

    to autograph my copy of PIT BULL :D
     
    #33     Aug 22, 2002
  4. lundy

    lundy

    you liked that movie too? I've got it on dvd and I watch it every time I'm feeling down.
     
    #34     Aug 22, 2002
  5. balsy to me isn't calling the market direction because I get paid nothing to do it(and I admit I'm terrible at it); balsy is what I do each day with real money as I did today, that where the rubber hits the road.

    The fact that all your technical indicators are failing should tell you something and that something is 'a change is abrewing'. Marty Zweig, John Bollinger, and I years ago scratched our heads as the markets blew through our overbought indicators day after day. It was the beginning of big money influence and the wane of retail investor influence. Big money funds move this market in impulse waves and mkts can stay OB for quite awhile till everyone gets through that proverbial door; after which the market usually consolidates at higher levels and typical TA works again but only on the OS side. Knd of the reverse of the decline where amateurs kept picking OS bottoms.

    Think dicennial pattern(1972,1982, 1992): think 3 1/2 yr cycle or the old presidential cycle, think mid year elections and you get strong seasonal upside. Also check the McLellan Osc & Summation index for tradeable rally in here which has just begun.
     
    #35     Aug 22, 2002
  6. triple

    medaglia d'oro is the favorite..current odds 2-5
    this horse won the Jim Dandy a few weeks ago...there are horses just as good with better odds....I'm not much of a handicapper or big bet guy..just love going to the track and watching...and I'll put $10-20 on each race..i like long shot exacta's...
    here's more info on the race if you're interested.

    www.nyra.com
     
    #36     Aug 22, 2002
  7. yeah Seth! I'm sure he'll be there....if you come up let me know...I'll be there with a bunch of buddies..and we'll be out on th etown all night too.
    :cool:
     
    #37     Aug 22, 2002
  8. The August movement, imo, is about the hardest to call of any time during the year...It has been this way for many years as it sort of fits in between any critical time of year for anyone to do anything important except sit on their hands...We get the "vacation market" for a few weeks and the volatility is compressing...But one thing that could be of some interest is that volatility "troughs" many times during the month of August prior to a volatility "re loading" in the next two months...

    Considering the volatility extremes we came off of last month it is not altogether too surprising the extremes we have reached on the upside...Consider that we are better than 20% higher in almost all of the stock indicies in less than 30 days...

    From the volatility trough at the end of March to the peak near the end of July we have retraced nearly 70%. The market has rallied 20+% and is in the "vicinity" of where the September lows were broken, perhaps a significant enough level of resistance to give caution should any significant reversal occur in the next few trading session...As for now, it is just a "rolling chop" higher; each day looks like a potential top but gets bought into the close regardless...Very similar to the action in August, 2000...
     
    #38     Aug 22, 2002
  9. Funny you mention this. Yesterday I got my semi annual report on a mutual fund I have in my retirement account. I normally toss these, but decided to give it a look see, just to see what they owned etc... The thing that really stood out was how well this fund had out performed the SP500 over the past few months. It got me to thinking that maybe this could signal there are once again some opportunites to the upside. A sort of divergence. Maybe as result of the great bull market that ended in 2000, investors have a Pavlovian response to indexes vs individual stocks. The Dow is down, the Naz has lost 75% etc..If you only watch CNBC or read the newspaper, eveything is in the toilet, but the reality is quite different. Its like the old saying..."you can't see the forest for the trees" only in reverse..."you can't see the stocks for the market". I think we may be entering a time where the indexes probably won't do a whole lot one way or the other, but some stocks will.
     
    #39     Aug 22, 2002
  10. Thanks, uptick. I was looking for that info and couldn't find it.

    best,

    -triple

    ------------------------

    "real eyes see real lies"
     
    #40     Aug 22, 2002