Yeah.... didnt read that until after I posted. I still think Steve is right on as far as the stats stuff. But I disagree with his opinion of backtesting. Using Excel *IS* backtesting. Just not as slick as a backtesting suite. peace axeman
It appears most researchers/ professors (with PhDs) related to statistics would use Excel for backtesting to write up papers. Perhaps they All must be very profitable traders.
Until steve can explain why you cant test for correlation and dependency using backtesting software, there really isnt much to discuss. I simply dont believe it. I know for a fact I can test for these things using backtesting software. peace axeman
Poor longshot only has a highschool diploma, so he has a chip on his shoulder. It pisses him off to no end that just about everyone on ET has more education than he does. Even Mr Market! LMAOOOOOOOOO... The kid has serious IQ envy. Its pretty pathetic peace axeman
To all posters: I figure I have offered the best advice I have to give at this date. For those who may disagree. I wish you well. I am sure you will have faith in your convictions and continue "as you were". For myself, I like the idea of helping people who may be struggling to find their way. This is a hard business. I know from experience the toll it takes to lose money and not have a clue as to how to proceed. Actually there are two problems with traditional backtesting. One has been mentioned. The other is that traders who use these products (Tradestation et al) usually do not have the education to accurately interprete the results. One of the big differences between profitable traders and losers is the ability to recognize both opportunity AND danger. My last piece of advice on this subject is: If you don't understand what the ALL the results of your "backtest" mean, DON'T TRADE IT UNTIL YOU DO! Good luck in the markets. Best to all, Steve46
More great advice from Steve. But still disagree on the original backtesting assertion. Learning to backtest is a SKILL that you need to learn well. But backtesting alone will NOT prevent you from finding real systems. There is nothing inherent in backtesting that causes failures. You just need to learn how to use the tools properly. peace axeman