Backtesting and "finding a profitable strategy" are two (or more, depending) separate operations. Backtesting a bad strategy won't help find a profitable strategy (except to the extent it tells you to pick another strategy to backtest). Backtesting a good strategy may make the strategy more profitable, or spin off different parameter sets that are geared toward different/specific types of market conditions.
No, you're fine. Ask yourself how you arrived at ET. Was it via any of the following? -WSB Discord -Reddit -RH If so, then yes, you're stupid/ignorant/both.
No, I googled trading forum, ignored the first 5 because they were usually ads. The one that came up after #5 or #6... was www.elitetrader.com: https://www.google.com/search?ei=FC...hUKEwiqs_rmnK_qAhXlGDQIHYHZAUYQ4dUDCAw&uact=5
Maybe, but if you adjust your parameters to make it more profitable, isn't that a biased test?. How can you make those adjustment to your strategy if you don't know what the next market would be?
How did you find proof that the markets are not random? Can you give an example of one of those patterns?
Money management rules are applied to a system or strategy. Money management on its own does not generate money. It only helps in finding out how to protect the money invested. You first need a strategy and then apply money management rules on it. The rules can be different for different strategies, depending on the "behavior" of the strategy.
Indeed you need a strategy but you can't know for sure that it can make money by backtesting it. Are you familiar with the survival bias?
I survive already 2 decades as a daytrader. So I have a fairly good idea about the "survival bias". Thanks to years of backtesting I have a fairly good idea about the expectancy of my trading and I know that I will always make money if the number of trades are statistically relevant. The problem is not the backtesting, the problem is the (bad/weak) strategy that is backtested. If backtesting does not give you comparable results as real trading, you should make a better strategy. Don't blame it on the backtest. You are the problem, as you created the strategy. A good strategy will in real trading give more or less the same results as in backtesting. The reason why is very simple: A good strategy works in ANY market condition. If your backtest gives different results it means it only works in certain conditions, so not reliable.