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# backtesting for casino games

Discussion in 'Trading Software' started by syd697, Dec 9, 2003.

1. ### syd697

Just spent some time in Vegas and love the "craps" game. Have a few strategies that I'd like to test out for that game. I know you can play online, but does anyone know of a site or software that will backtest and simulate certain craps betting strategies? I want to run a test of at least 1000 rolls of the dice. Anyone? Thanks again.

2. ### sportsguy

the input is two numbers, each 1-6, correct?

with 1000 rows of column A and B to use
the random number generator and a
VB function to classify the output to a number. . .

then in columns c=> AA or whatever,
write a VB function for the Win loss strategy

If you want i can do it and send it back to you

sg

3. ### syd697

Thanks for the response. I want to test whether I should be putting odds on the pass line bet at various times during a shooter's roll. Also, I might put on a "come" bet with or without odds, and also place odds on the 6 or 8 during a roll. I want to test these scenarios in different combinations. I just have no way of knowing how to do this even with your advice. Is your method on Excel?

4. ### Thunderdog

I know nothing about craps, and perhaps I am being naive, but why would you not just go with the probability distribution of all of the potential outcomes of the throw of the dice? Assuming fair dice, the probability distribution is known, and the expected value and variance are readily calculable. What possible usable, reliable (repeatable) information would a simulation give you over that? This is not a rhetorical question. I'd really like to know.

5. ### Quah

You should always play max odds allowed on pass line bets and all subsequent come bets. That's the only way to get closer to breakeven odds over time.

Same goes for don't pass and don't come bets - lay max odds at all times. In fact, playing the don't pass line and then don't come on each roll (laying max odds each time) gives you the best odds of breaking even over time - if I remember correctly, playing in this manner reduces the houses advantage to something like .3%. (with 10x odds)

There are a couple of craps simulations that do exactly what you are looking for - in fact, you can program them to play exactly how you want them to - or you can just play them roll by roll - just like backtesting a trading system. I'll see if I can find the link for the one I've used in the past.

(edited to add: here it is : http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/ - WinCraps. I loved play with it.)

6. ### syd697

Quah,

Thanks for the link. Looks exactly like something I can use.

7. ### Quah

Also - always tell the dealer you want your odds bets "working" on the come out roll - they are "off" by default.

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