yeah well the assumption seems to be.. if your going to backtest.. you are going to automate or not make money.. doesn't make sense to me.. because we as humans now have useless brains..
Intraday scalping is probably done by traders and not done by computers. Since you mentioned 5-minute bars, I am replying to you. trading observable trend segments on five minute bars is very doable and very profitable. By using longer bars, you can do position trading on stocks with the same relative perfomance type results. Actually any fractal is very profitable. As you notice, most people take a very long time in their lives to learn to trade profitably. My experience was different. For me, profit segments only had beginnings, endings, and middles. The ending of one segment started another segment. I figured if an end wasn't happening then I could just keep making more money. Including half of my time just making money and half of my time getting the above in my mind, I spent about 40 days including weekends. I just wrote it out for you in a small amount of time as well. In 1957, there were no PC's.
Jack thanks for the advice! Pleasure to see you reply to my thread. I've tried to send you a private message but I see you have the option disabled... This is a bit off topic but I wanted to ask you a question about relative strength and sector rotation... Do you feel that this sort of analysis holds predictive power to a retail trader/investor?
When I joined ET, for first few months, I used to read what Jack is writing. Then I figured out that its a great waste of my time to read Jack's poetry. So, I stopped reading - my mind became so focused - that as soon as I see "jack hershey" written anywhere - my mind will automatically skip that post and move forward. I read this post of Jack after probably a year. And wow - Jack is making sense in this post!!!! Have things changed???? My comments in blue below.
he is saying you can make money on a 5min chart as well as a 4 hr chart, as well as weekly charts. All look very similar - that is his point.
Fractals and time frames are different from each other I understand that most people do not differentiate between the two definitions. I try my best to communicate about how information can be used to learn how the market operates. I do use adjacent bars on time frames to "build market fractals" from the smallest to the largest. Small fast fractals are inside of larger slower fractals. A person can annotate fractals by using parallelograms (three points and two parallel line segments. They are trend lines and they are conventionally named for their purposes: Right trend Line (RTL) and Left Trend Liine (LTL). I use them as building blocks from the ground up (Granularity). They interlock in a ratio of three to one. Two parts compose the moves to form the parallelogram. The money making third part begins at point 3 of the drawn and projected parallelogram. This interior space is the region in which the next trend begins. For the next trend to begin, the existing trend must be known to have ended. There is a specific and precise and the only one significant test which proves this. As you read this, either you deduce the test yourself (which I admire as a person takes the opportunity) or you take the opportunity to just accept the answer which I will provide here in a moment in a separate post. Thank you for reading this post. Timeframes are selected by PC users. To handle fractals the PC user annotates proactively or has a software code do the highlighting accurately and automatically.
To grasp and digest the specific test above mentioned, consider a nested set of interlocking fractals all constructed from the smallest interior fractal upwards to the largest slowest fractal that represents this Depression we are experiencing. This is a Bear context as are all Depressions. As a trader, you make money using a chosen trading fractal. Go to that fractal you have annotated and do the test by using all the "faster moving sub fractals" that compose your trading fractal. You can make this test in 10ms to 100ms. You will feel no anxiety, no fear nor any anger. Instead you will feel comfort, support and confidence. All fractals that build the trading fractal are COMPLETING THEIR THIRD TREND MOVE AND A NEW TRADE FIRST MOVE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN ON ALL OF THE FRACTALS FASTER THAN YOUR TRADING FRACTAL. This is also true on your trading fractal. As you may know, many people use multiple time frames. (read their first posts as they introduce themslves). This usage is an approximation of the "real" scientifically deduced correct answer for meauring profitable trend segments. "Confirmation" is used in trading by many people. Being late to the party is safer, some say. At some point, by working to annotate, you get to "know that you know". This set of feelings can always be with you since you are using an alternative to "betting". One of the magnificent experiences in trading is arriving at a place where you always know that you know. This space has no noise, no flaws nor any anomalies. Hence it feelings of support, comfort and confidence. This is where "consistency" comes from. Notice that you can set up your display to include the bars that do not count in parallelograms. About 50% of the bars. All of thee bars are bars you Hold through to return to making money. I reverse on the test moment "true" (event I call it). Then I hold through the ensuing three moves and just reverse again on the next test moment "true". This is called Technical Analysis. It is NOT called trend following. You will be able to observe the future coming into the Present where the test moment "true" occurs.
It is true that my posts read diiferently than the first time you read them. during the intervenig time period, you mind has assembled more long term memory. In perception, the long term memory contribution is called "inference" and it is 90% of what you "read" as a sensing process (10%). Having an added and better personal inference, you are more effective and efficient. As time passes you also do the most important part of your life: SLEEP. Waht you do unconsciously in preception outweighs your awakened conscious perception. The conscious is 10,000 parts compared to the uncconscious 20,000,000 parts. Durng sleep your mind merges the unconscious into the conscious. AS you awaken, you have AHA's about what puzzled you yesterday. Your inference has been greatly enhanced. This knowledge instructs you to do repetitious work over and over. That is how you "learn". If you just read and observe, you are just ineffective and inefficient as all get out. I can rarely ge a person to post two profit segments that are annotated and logged. The fact that I can email 10 to 14 pages a day to a learner is "nothing" since all they do is print, read and punch it into a three ring binder. I am surrounded here by screens shelves and the last fifty three ring binders I have created. I have two desks and a custom five screen bay with an arcing writing surface. I program daily and I can have immediate skilled advice in a moment by phone or gotomeeting on my screens. I wear a head set and mic most of the time. I reached the majic part of my life where at night my mind CAN process ALL the subconscious peception I create. When I awaken I reach for my steno pad and rapidly outline my iterative refinement my mind has completed for me. If and when that part of your life begins, you will know it has happened. Their is a NEW life feeling when your mind can keep up and complete its evening tasks.