all complete nonsense, first you have to learn how to trade then u backtest. without learning how to trade all ur money will go to me in no time
From having read your posts, your "sorrow for me" has the same effect as a 3 year old trying to teach college physics. It is just amazingly funny and pathetic. A reasonable person does not slam a religious group repeatedly and expect to be taken seriously (no, I am not Jewish). All it did was expose your mind as an uneducated doofus. And that is on a good day
you're using well known 'ad hominem' attack (just in case ET readers don't know what it is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem ) why aren't you discussing the substance with me, the core of the issue, backtesting? do you have any arguments against mine?
Let say you are going to bet in which country will John be in any given day. You have "back-tested" the habits of John and you know that in the last 9 years he has been out of the country for 10 days. Your back test shows that after 10 rainy days if the 11th day is Saturday and it is in the middle of the month and it is a leap year the chance of him being outside of the county is 90%. You have $50,000. There have been 10 rainy days, the 11th is Saturday, it is the middle of the month and it is a leap year. How much will you bet that John is not in the country?
If you have no estimates of your edge and your odds you cannot bet, at least theoretically there is no way to calculate it. %Kelly article The best you can do is bet small to avoid a streak of consecutive losses. Say 5% of you capital at most.
Very wise advice WyckoffTrader⦠We all agree poor money management is a killer, building curve fitted solutions is probable and using bad sample testing methods produce poor performing automated solutions. These are the most common causes of new strategies failing in live trading. But there is another area thatâs almost never mentioned and that is that is poor testing methods. As WyckoffTrader said this can lead to 5000 to 10,000 hours (of testing) before you see anything robust and not just random luck Many traders simply do not understand how to test with price data. Let us start out with the scientific method we all learned in 8th grade science: âIn order to draw conclusions about outcomes and their causes, data must come from true experiments. True experiments, or randomized field or controlled trials, test specific predictions and rule out alternative explanations. In an experiment, an investigator assigns subjects randomly to experimental and control groups, varies the apparent cause (the independent variable) and looks at the apparent effect (the dependent variable) while holding all other variables constant. Only true experiments can provide evidence of whether an instructional practice works or not.â About 2500 hours into testing I tried to adopt this method. It was hell to figure out what it meant at first (I had many failures). But when it did work I could finally begin use trade management and make profits in live trading. But the principle is explicit. Trade management principles will have no affect on a trading strategy that has no positive expectancy continuously in live trading. Another other words you canât beat a dead horse and make him work. No amount of trade management can do that. Here is an example of using this type of testing. Price has a meta-data attached to it. These items are direction, volatility and volume. By testing my strategies in price data that had similar characteristics (direction, volatility and volume) in the in-sample and out-of-sample I was able to isolate what was non-performing in the strategy in testing. Not only that but I now understood when and where my strategies would and would not perform in live trading. What you are doing using this type of method is data mining in testing. The traderâs objective is to pull as many pieces of the puzzle together as they can to build a unified whole strategy by holding as many things as constant as possible. It is a very complex job to say the least, but the benefits are well worth the tripâ¦
you seemed to have ignored your own attacks against the Jewish. So you think that when you attack people it is ok, and when others do it, you need to dig up dictionary definitions of why they are wrong?