I guess buying TZA for the last month wasn't enough pain for you? I guess not when you're paper trading.
This is a day-trade. TZA is an intermediate longer term swing. Strategy is that upon the annoucement there will be volatility and will dump the puts on the gap down depending upon chart.
TZA--Do you normally hold "swing" trades for 30% losses? Your "strategy" should be re-evaluated. Maybe taking a break from relentlessly posting on ET would help?
I also forgot to add that when I go long anything that I always insure the trade with some puts. It looks like I lost, but I actually made money on the trade. Many new school traders dont know of this trick. Back in the 80s, when you made a trade through a broker, they would always ask if you wanted to insure the trade by buying puts. That was the advantage of stock brokers in those days. Today, many people wreck their accounts because they dont know how to take out insurance.
Do you truely believe they are not going to take this opportunity to pump the market some more? Good luck!
why not just go long calls? since that is the synthetic strategy you are describing (you must have a compelling answer to justify the excessive commissions - I'm at the edge of my seat awaiting your response)