It's a bad omen if we lose 990 this far out from expiration, shouldn't do that till Friday or Monday. I'm still biased long but some hedging with put diagonals going out a few months. Good day for me in the ES, as every day lately. That can't last!
I was looking at the ES, not the S&P when i posted the above. On second thought, i think a more telling level for the ES is 980 not 990. If we should close below 980 before Friday, i'll sit up and take note. Naturally i would expect some movement up/down as we get closer to options expiration.
Indeed! Keep your eye on 950! We usually don't make the entire move on Monday. It would be unusual for the market to move in a single day to where it needs to be for expiration. But it wouldn't be unusual for the unusual to happen.
In my "investment" accounts, I began to put on some short positions about three weeks ago, currently I'm hedged, biased slightly long, my short positions are puts deep in the money and relatively far out or diagonals with the long puts similar. I should also add that i'm a little over 1/3 in cash at the moment. I don't like to base medium and long term positions on expiration week antics, though they create delightful intraday opportunities, as we experienced yesterday.
why pull your shorts after a single down day, this market has more downside risk than upside risk at this moment, it wouldn't surprise me to see the indexes down by 4pm. I didnt sell any of my inverse yesterday, in fact I added 1/2 a position in RFN under $7.00 today.