Back testing

Discussion in 'Programming' started by cooltraderabhi, Dec 4, 2012.

  1. Hi - I want to backtest the following:

    I want to take the price action of January every year and see what it has done for the remaining of the year and take the average of the last 20-30 years.

    Is it better to do this in Excel or can it be programmed?
  2. The first week of JAN determines the yearly trend. Don't use just PA; use the other variables, too.

    It is easy to estimate the breakpoints when and at what value for the entire year come about 1DEC just before EOY. (Google my past graphics). Ooh it looks like its about that time as we speak.

    you asked about technique. Print a graph that has a fulcrum at the first of the year. copy the graph.

    get out scissors and glue.

    Snip the past. invert it. Paste December, degapped to December so that a reverse chron is now going forward.

    hold it up to a bright light and trace the next years chart on to the back side of what you pasted.

    Keep it simple. use straight lines between break points.

    Also transfer volume by using the past year's volumes segment by segment (one segment per brekpoint). To do this you have to just turn over the volume panel but do not invert it.

    In the philosophy of history (See Danto, Columbia), this is kind of a symmetry about a point. Columbia is in NYC but do not let a liberal arts aspect of philsophy be beyond you. NYC has gone down the drain from a personal character point of view in the finncial industry and environs (meaning Conn., (a paraphrase of what is being done in NYC)).
  3. What other variables do you use?

    Yes, January tells us more about the yearly trend. Thus, I want to take the average to smooth the data.

    Should this be done in Excel?
  4. Sorry it took so long. I limited my answers to stuff I remember and I'm 80.

    Those vergules get me every time.
  5. river


    Jack, I remember one you posted a few years ago.

    It was uncannily accurate.

    Would you be willing to share your anticipated chart of 2013 with us?

  6. Your point is well taken.

    Here in this thread, I tried to deal with any point in time and do a projection using Danto's philosophy of history slightly enhanced for markets.

    2013 is going to be unique in history, however.

    We have just gone through the U of Chi declining to deal with a continuing dialog on economics.

    39 Republicans just declined to deal with a global treaty for the impaired that the US invented the last time Dole voted before he died.

    While I have immunity (it is a technical fact), this immunity facet is not going to be discovered any time soon.

    We did go over the cliff a while back. So that is settled.

    But there still is the matter of the disappearance of integrity in the financial industry and now our economy. 63 trillion in snake oil is not being handled as yet. 60 minutes just posted on the fake mortgage paper spin industry in large buildings full of people with the same name signing fake papers.

    Glacial things are anticipatable. but we are finding new bugs living in lakes under glaciers in the dark, contemporarily.

    Science, at long last, is going to enter the financial industry and I am a person with integrity. I will drill holes in slow moving things and show the bugs.

    My plan for 2013 is to make a record, with continuity, how building capital really works. It is my belief that at various size milestones and my joining ranks with screwed people who followed the rules and got fouled by Wall Street that I am going to make my first waves that really count.

    I gave myself permission to not set deadlines and, it all worked out for me, finally. I'm starting my 80's in January.

    We'll stay in touch.
  7. river


    Jack, are you referring to market turmoil (volatility) due to political turmoil, especially in the first quarter of 2013?

    Or are you alluding to something else entirely?

    I look forward to following this unfolding record throughout 2013.

    I hope so and look forward to it.

    If your record in 2013 of “how building capital really works” takes place outside of ET, I would appreciate an invitation to follow along. (Todd has my contact information, if needed).


  8. At some point I surface and am seen by Main Street and "occupy".

    Imformation moves at the speed of light. I worked with Abby Hoffman for years and years. I know what powr to the people means. I worked with Ceasar Chavez for years. I have pissed on tobacco plants and lettuce just like he did. SEE the movie HELP and find out what "eat my shit" really means.

    this is he way it will go:

    the power structure is not going to get the job done; it failed already.

    This means I get to win bigger and biggr through price change of insturments.

    If you trhing the mortgage industry is screwed up, just wait. you haven't seen anything as yet.

    Ronald Coase (101 yo) is correct and so is Ning Wang. And so is the guy a Princeton. The EMH is OVER. Applied economics and NOT theoretical economics is where the future lies. Fogel has explained to the quants to "start over and get it right this time.

    Get a hold of the successor to " the post-autisitic economics newsletter'.

    I am intercepting that future with the Holy Grail of price change. The U of Chi has screwed up once and for all in renegging on an Economics dialog.

    In two years, the Tea party reminants will be over.

    In fours years, 75% of Republicam registered women will still be committed to vote (polls show they are right now) for Hillary Clinton. Women are not going to tolerate this contemporary fuckup that is going on now.

    I am not competing with anyone. I am just taking the full offer of the market. The heirarchy is information, power money (top to bottom). I am an information provider and I am using it to GET money to solve problems with WORKERS.

    Listen, you will hear the locomotive coming down the line. If you want to WORK, get aboard.

    My critics are just unpaid advertizers I use.
  9. gucci


    Jack... It is getting worse... What a pity... Wasted potential...
  10. Paddler


    Jack for President! :p
    #10     Dec 9, 2012