Discussion in 'Stocks' started by J Ski, Aug 30, 2011.
Some ET members said it was going to zero.
Recent price action has it at $8.39.
Where is the resistance? I am thinking about buying puts but I am not sure if it will go higher. I am guessing $10 but its a dumb blind guess. If it hits $10 I am definitely trying my luck. Seems like every thing written about BAC is bad news for the stock. Investors trying to get it to buyback loans, Warren Buffet getting a chunk of dividends, and it selling off assets that will reduce it's revenue going forward. Can it go higher than $10?
I definitely wouldn't buy... The CDS is trading around 450bp last time I checked. That's roughly 9 times higher than what it was about a month and a half earlier. I don't consider the credit market participants retards.
I hit BAC twice.
Very small net positive with 2 trades.
Second post illustrates the CDS issue. Negative.
I chart but don't neglect fundamentals. Negative.
Pending lawsuits are accelerationg. Negative.
Lots of other stocks in the toybox.
Long for 5 years. Short for the short term. In 3 years it's either a 3 or a 20.
BAC has been s a bit lackluster, but using numerical analysis lets see what could have been done...
If the daily high had gone 5.6% or more above the previous day's high, that was an OK "go long" signal. 5.6% below the previous day's high was an OK "go short" signal. Buying should have been at the signal price, but selling should have been at the close following the signal.
Using this method for the past 12months would have given 213% compounded return with a drawdown of 18%.
There were 4 buy signals and 25 sell signals last year.
Another way to trade it would have been:
Go long if the price rises 1.4% above the open, go short at the next open. This would have given 315% in 55 long/short round trips. 13% drawdown.
Go long if price was 4.1% above last closing price. Go short if price is at or below the last closing price.
Would have given 301% return, 11 long, 11 short round trips with 15% drawdown.
Only only one long/short switch per day, max for any of these systems.
Incidentally, just going short the whole year would have made 70% with 27% drawdown.
I started looking at it some weeks ago.
Thank you for looking at it.
'...'Make Money in Selling Stocks Short'' book by William O 'Neil[IBD founder/investor]l;
has it on a 3 year bear market, weekly chart, sell in 73-74 bear market.
Mr Buffet maybe hopes it goes down??;
so he can buy more BAC cheaper.
Maybe old news;
but i looked thru a bank booklet /''Bank Bust'' , by Dr. Martin Weiss;
Citigroup BAC are amoung the top three largest derivatives holders, in USA . Both bear trend banks have in past closed below[ monthly candles ]$5.00 [C split 10 for 1 so $50 is actually $50 in Citi,LOL]
barchart has a ''sell'' on BAC;
its so far below 200dma[sell signal], careful on bottom fishers.LOL
I'm trying to stop
looking at these high risk ones.
BAC came up as a possible buy today 9-9-11. Here are the numbers go long at 7.50 stop loss at 7.10. Has a risk of 5.3% with a risk amount of 40.00 per 100 shares. Counter trend trade. Dont buy in the first 1/2 hour of trading.
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