sprstpd, most of the time I divide up the amount I want to devote to an idea or trade into 3 or 4 and enter one part of it 'early' or what usually ends up being early in hindsight. I'm trying to lean into the wind but in a way that allows me to be wrong and survive. Then I add to the position (hopefully, when the trend changes) And yes, I do have stops and they have been triggered a lot lately! I never had the pleasure of meeting Senior Tomas de Torquemada but with this market right now I'm beginning to empathize with those who did. The only thing working for me is gold right now. And I take tremendous solace in that because its the only place I can find it right now. I've been thinking about a puzzle within that sector for some time. You see RANGY owns 48.2% of GOLD. They have done so for some time and they have absolutely no intention to divest. So a rational person would think that RANGY, the parent would be valued at 48.2% of GOLD plus whatever the market thinks that the rest of the parent is worth. Right? Aahhh! But the market is not rational (sorry vladiator). In a worse case scenario were the other assets of the parent, RANGY, worthless, then it must be at least equal to the market cap of GOLD, right ? Wouldn't it be madness if the parent is valued less than the holdings of one of its subsidiaries? From my calculations RANGY is valued at appx. 30% under its holdings in GOLD (even if all of its other holdings were nil). Needless to say I will be grateful to the person who can unravel this for me. Getting back to market in general, I could go on and on about this or that and how it shows the market is weak and wobbling. But that would just be a waste of time. I'm still bearish but rather bloodied. And by the way, what I meant by the 'big guns' is very deep OTM puts 4/6 months out (around 5% of my portfolio). What I'm hoping here is that the leverage will win over the time erosion and the extra kicker will be the increased volatility (possibly doubling from its current levels). âMarkets are never wrong, opinions are.â â Jessie Livermore
Babak... with all honesty... I completely disagree with your entire strategy of top picking and most of the methods you describe in your journal. While I agree that the nasdaq is overbought and is bound for atleast a dip... just because a few indicators are majorly overbought doesnt mean we go straight down. You should know.. that in the past.. i mean back in 97' and 98' many of the indicators were extremely overbought.. and instead of going down.. it just went sideways for a few days.. until the indicators reverted back to the mean.. then the market just continued to rally. Remember one thing... behind every major power rally.. is a bunch of overbought indicators.. and trends in motion stay in motion until they are broken... Here are the facts... If you were shorting the market you would be losing money... if you were buying breakouts or pullbacks you would be making money.... I will just continue to buy until it just doesnt work anymore... --MIKE
There are several indicators and not just a few that describe an "overbought" condition. But they do not simply describe them asmechanically overbought, they are at levels as a group consistent with with prior intermediate tops in this bear market. In fact Babak - and I - are doing exactly what you propose: to follow precedent and trade accordingly. You will buy the pullback on the immediate trend, were looking short on the larger trend. We looking to short the pullback from the lows.
and you've been losing. At least babak finally admitted today he's losing (his "ouch" comment). dgabriel, you seem to be in massive denial that the market is going against you in a big way.
In reality I would not consider this a pullback off lows because the market has been trading over its lows for over 7 months.. and has been basing... I do agree the market is bound for some type a correction... however you have to agree... right now.. the money is being made on the long side.. until proven otherwise.. This is how I have been playing the market.. I have been buying high volume breakouts out of bases.. especially a few cup with handles.. ever since the beginning of April.... Almost all of my long trades are working... and I will continue buying high volume breakouts out of bases... until they just dont work anymore... then I will reasses and possibly go short... This method allows me to always go with flow... and avoid picking tops and bottoms... I allow the outcome of my trades determine my bias of the market... I believe this type of trading is also consistent with some of the best traders in the world.. including the turtles... -MIKE
How do you know there was "major damange" to his account? You have no idea what his risk managment parameters are. Brandon
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=16711&perpage=6&pagenumber=9 I do know what "ouch, very ouch" means. I learned that in 3rd grade. It means you're hurting. And as babak finally admits, he's hurting now with this momentum building rally.
yes sir, mr. trendfader, you talk, and tell us what to do. we'll follow your lead. geez. ignore me? that's smart. I've been, BY FAR, the most accurate market caller on this board recently. when greatness shines, jealous souls always come out from under their rocks.
1) Alright, but the secular trend is still down. 2) Agreed. My shorts have a farther outlook and I am trading from the long side as well. $ is $ up or down. By on the short term pullback. Yes, but it is late in the cycle now to look long without a decent pullback at least imo. I said several days ago either a deep pullback will occur or an intermediate trendchange but I favor the former and even a modest pullback will give me some profit on the index shorts. 3) Agreed, traditional long style entries have been paying off with little risk and volatility for the last 6 weeks. 4)Turtles, I was thought the turtles were a second rate rock group and don't know why they got into trading anyway.