Pabst, you've got a lot of nerve highlighting China's stock market as a "free market" given the fact that the government is frequently purchasing shares in their market. As for your overall thesis, you conveniently fail to acknowledge that Europe and the rest of the world "played" fast and loose with the same securities that we did. They have it even worse ( on a percentage of GDP basis ) than us. And yet you conveniently refrain from pointing that out . . . Why is that?
China is just one of MANY global markets that's above it's Nov lows. If America is still breaking because of financial's then what's the NASDAQ 100's excuse? Not a bank in sight there. Look at the All Ordinaries. The housing situation in OZ is just as dire as here-even worse when priced in the $US- not to mention Westfield who is exposed in the States. Still holding their Nov lows-albeit they'll probably trade out but Aussie longs vs. U.S. shorts has been a winner on this leg. So pretend I didn't mention China. BTW I was going to cover below 700 but I'm shooting for 675. I'll hedge some long gamma today though.
I am not sure why you would think that the "systemic risk" out there should ALREADY be priced into the markets. European Banks have $24 TRILLION of ongoing systemic risk! That number is TWICE the size of the United States GDP. P.S. April Crude is off a little more than 10% at 40.15 - - - Only $2.70 from the contract lows.
I'm quite short-as you're aware-so what are you telling me that I don't know? You sent me a PM with "support" at 739 and 715. I was adding to shorts at 740....
Sorry Landis but any trader who is willing to call out major levels of price support where there are no prior levels of support before it are irresponsible technical analysts. Stick to the news.
Not only have future expectations of profit been pulled in because we no longer have cheap money out there, not only are the markets concerned about toxic assets, not only is there a looming risk of depression, but the markets have less chance of being nicely profitable because the electorate is turning left. Brilliant analysis. Our potential is lower because money is not cheap an our governments are being run socialists. How do I bet on stagflation? 2-3 years from now?
S&P down 30% since The Obamassiah took office and shifted the move to socialism from 2nd to 5th gear. A few days ago a major poll said 54% of Americans liked the bailout plan and thought it would help. Geez. Maybe another 30% will make people start to think just a little. But I doubt it. Speaking of 5ths, I'm ready for a drink.
Yes, I'm sure it's all Obama and has nothing to do with the crumbling economy and the increasingly negative economic and corporate news that surface almost daily. No doubt, all macroeconomic and corporate information has already been discounted in full since before Obama took office, in accordance with Efficient Market Theory, and everything since then has been nothing but Obama fallout. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Congratulations. Looks like you've had the last 40 points all figured out. Do I still have time to enroll in your trading class?