Here is a theory to evaluate for swing trading... If you want to trade with a trend that's going to last for awhile (is stable enough for swing trading), you'll want to move up to a sloping 1½-day trend, entering positions when the three- and ten-hour baselines come out of pullbacks to resume matching trajectories.
Friday | January 12, 2024 | 12:30 PM EST So, after trimming away all the fat, I find myself arriving at the following bare-bones (or "lean cut") guidelines... Only enter long positions when the 8½- and (37- to) 40-minute baselines are both sloping upward (or the 40-minute MA's overall progress is at least headed north); and only enter short positions when the 8½- and (37- to) 40-minute baselines are both angling downward (or the 40-minute MA's overall progress is at least headed south). [There is no longer any need to consult the 20-minute measure(s).] Moreover, consult the temporal support and resistance measures for the ideal entry levels for getting into positions/executing trades...
The 15-minute baseline should be used to confirm the direction of the 8½-minute measure, but bear in mind that it is a "fluctuating moving average." The 40-minute baseline is the most stable representative of the intraday trend, but suffers from a degree of lag. The 30-minute moving average is better about recognizing reversals in the intraday trend in a timely manner, but is not quite as reliable as its slower cousin.
There's nothing about the observations that conflict with my notes from today. The notes would simply recommend adding the 90-minute measure(s) to the list comprised of the 8½-, 15- and (37- to) 40-minute baselines.
The above model has enabled me to return to the 85% or better daily success rate which serves as the minimum for which I am willing to settle... As I become more comfortable with its use, I plan to gradually increase the frequency with which I trade with it, and the size of the stake I am willing to risk pre each transaction. According to quantifiedstrategies.com, the profit factor is a mathematical metric that divides the gross profits by the gross losses; with a good profit factor above 1.75. They say they would be skeptical if the value is lower than 1.75, but at the same time, they are also skeptical if it is above four. I therefore suppose they would consider a value of 161 to be a total fabrication. Nonetheless, I plan to do my level best to keep it as close to this value as I possibly can, for as long as I possibly can.
Wednesday | January 24, 2024 | 10:05 AM PST During the last 24-hour market cycle, I engaged in some experimentation in an attempt to realize bigger gains. This dropped my success rate down to 80% and my profit factor from 160.60 all the way down to 4.88. (But, seeing as how this is still greater than 4.00, I suppose Quantified Strategies would continue to be skeptical.) For a long time, my greatest weakness was a general inability to get the size of my profit trades to outperform the size of my loss trades, but that does not appear to be the case here.