Thursday| January 4, 2024 | 6:45 PM PST If the green baseline (and the purple envelope) is/are sloping upward AND the red, purple and blue moving averages are all above the green baseline, look to enter long positions when the salt and pepper envelopes flatten out on the bottom... Look to lock in gains once the salt and pepper envelopes flatten out on top, especially if you ALSO see candlesticks making contact with one or both sets of upper bands of the two longer-term (brown and purple) envelopes. Note that just before the yellow arrow, one should stop looking to enter long positions, because at that point, the green baseline began sloping downward. If a trader DID (accidentally) enter a long position, s/he should exit with whatever profit is available (or get out at break even) seeing as how it isn't long thereafter before we ALSO have the red, purple and blue moving averages dropping below the green baseline. (Use the exact opposite set of conditions for shorting positions.)
So, in applying the above tactic during real-life trading—depending on market conditions—there might be an easier (simpler) way to go... Just go long whenever candlesticks are clearly shoving the top of the "pepper" channel north, and short the asset whenever candlesticks are clearly nudging the bottom of the "pepper" channel south. This will tend to be confirmed by the middle of the channel (the purple moving average in the center) crossing over to the opposite side of the lime green baseline.
Saturday | January 6, 2024 Okay, so here's the deal... At this point, I often want to be trading a full Lot rather than the 0.01 lots that was normal from 2017 through 2023 (though in 2023, I also began trading 0.05 and 0.5 lots). But in such instances, I want to virtually "know" that the outcome is going to be profitable. And I believe achieving this might be possible by using the insights offered by my "minutia observations" and a couple of charts I configured to illustrate my ideas for a contributor to this forum who goes by the moniker "Oadmani." The key is to enter following pullbacks in what is essentially the 20-minute price flow channel at 0.04% deviation. However, a standard 20-minute simple moving average envelope is NOT going to help. Instead I have to use my proprietary "Five-minute PATH Envelope." These pullbacks will also be positioned behind, or to the far side, of a sloping—NOT forty-minute, but rather—thirty-minute baseline. Generally speaking, the BEST time to do this will be when the gray five-hour, white 80-minute and violet 30-minute baselines are all fanning out in the same direction; with the "back side" of the 30-minute price range channel at 0.10% deviation serving as the stop loss, and the "front side" of the proprietary 20-minute price range channel at 0.04% deviation serving as the take-profit target. (From a longer-term perspective [pseudo swing trading as opposed to guerrilla scalping style] look to enter positions following pullbacks in the 30-minute baseline toward or behind a sloping five-hour baseline.)
Okay, I feel like I have too much information coming at me too fast here. So, let me review and start evaluating how this might all fit together, if at all... As you already observed, when you have candlesticks pushing the three-minute price flow channel up ore down, you have a CLEAR bullish or bearish (short-term) run on your hands. And yet, if the candlesticks break to the outside of the 13-minute price flow channel at 0.07% deviation, then you have something a bit more significant going on, don't you? Perhaps some degree of momentum is beginning to come into play here... That is... IF the corresponding band of the slower channel is able to catch up with the slope/trajectory of the three-minute price flow, as if failed to do in the first instance (Example A). Moreover, if the three-minute baseline starts to turn away from the corresponding band of the 13-minute channel from the inside of the envelope, then this too is probably a sign that failure is imminent (see the circled areas above). On the higher-time-frame chart (below), the red and blue three-minute price range channel is defined at two levels. More significant momentum is assumed to be at play if price action is joined by the speckled 14-minute (rather than 13-minute, but no big difference, really) moving average envelope at 0.10% deviation. (Change this to 0.07% deviation.) Moreover, you're also looking to see if the white proprietary and orchid generic 30-minute price range channels at 0.10% deviation reject or join the progress of the bullish or bearish three-minute excursion, and if they opt to join, if the purple envelope at 0.20% deviation does so as well. In any event, don't be surprised to see price reverse course and head back toward the 80-minute baseline somewhere around a band of the corresponding (green) envelope in the neighborhood of 0.22% or 0.35% deviation.
Okay, but what about when price isn't on a tear? Well, lets plot the red and blue 13-minute envelope and the speckled 14-minute envelope on a chart (both at 0.07% deviation), and accompany them with a slightly lagging but more stable bold violet 20-minute baseline. Except that we're going to need one more indicator—the darker, proprietary Five-minute Path × 3 channel. Note that when price isn't on a tear, but the 20-minute baseline IS sloping, it appears that traders should often be able to execute profitable trades by entering positions (see the arrows) when the thin outer red or blue band of the three-minute channel makes contact with the corresponding band of the Five-minute Path × 3 envelope (because the bands, more often than not, never reach the 13- or 14-minute channels); then pocketing gains somewhere in the neighborhood of the corresponding bands on the opposite side of the channel. On the other hand, a more significant run is presumed to have been initiated if, after ten or fifteen minutes, candlesticks are still refusing to be rejected at a temporal support or resistance level; pushing the measure to new highs or lows instead... ...even more so if the upper or lower band of the green 80-minute price flow envelope at 0.22% (and possibly even 0.35%) deviation begin to climb or descend with price action; and again, especially if the 30-minute, 80-minute and five-hour baselines are fanning out similar to the maneuvers described by Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision. Yeah Bro, that pretty much sums it up. And it does all fit together, except for the fact that the last stuff about temporal support and resistance levels came from looking at the day-to-day flow on daily charts, and then using four-hour charts to enter pseudo swing-like positions following pullbacks in the corresponding daily trend line.
These pullbacks would be in the 30- and 80-minute baselines toward or behind the 14-hour baseline (or possibly even the five-hour baseline), especially—though not necessarily—when the five-hour measure is angled in the same direction as that of the day-to-day trend... And then so NOW you have pulled everything all together.
Praise be to God (and if today and Friday are any indication) your most recent observations should direct you back to a 100% daily success rate the vast majority of the time. So then, continuing to polish the above carvings whittled from those insights offered by your "minutia observations" and the charts your configured to illustrate your ideas to Oadmani… With a pullback, the two-minute baseline crosses above or below (as appropriate) the five-minute baseline WITHOUT pushing the band to the far side of the five-minute moving average envelope (at 0.015% deviation) in the opposite direction. On the other hand, reversals WILL force the far band of the five-minute envelope to begin heading in the opposite direction AND will cause the nine-minute baseline to begin changing course too, as it pulls this moving average along with it. The possible start of an intraday run on price is signaled by candlesticks exiting to the exterior of the 30-minute price flow channel at 0.05% deviation (but ONLY when engaged in Forex trading.) When trading the major USA indices, such runs are much easier to recognize, seeing as how they usually consist of candlesticks merely breaking to the outside of the nine-minute (and often, the 13-minute as well) price flow channels. For such trading, refer to what you call your "triple channel breakout" chart configuration(s).
. NOTES: The following measures are from the "Day day-by-day, Four-hours-by four-hours, Hour-by-hour" charts derived from the four-hour "definitive" chart configuration... Basically, you want to be trading in the direction of the slope of the 37-minute baseline, primarily when the histogram levels on the associated lower-panel price anomaly channel are above 0.035 or below -0.035. Yet, the best time to enter positions is when the 37-minute baseline is reversing direction from a course opposed to the angle of the four-hour price flow to a matching trajectory. The four-hour price flow is represented by the two-hour baseline. The second best time to enter positions is when the fanning 4⅓-, 8½- and 17-minute moving averages initially come into alignment, typically following pullbacks to the 0.07% to 0.15% deviation level of the 17-minute price flow channel, or to one of the bands of the two proprietary 37-minute price flow channels.
. NOTES: At the one-minute level... Basically, you will want to enter long positions when a set of "fanning" 2⅓-, 4⅓- and 8½-minute moving averages are positioned above the 17-minute baseline, especially (if not exclusively) when the latter measure is sloping to the north. Conversely, you will want to enter short positions when a set of "fanning" 2⅓-, 4⅓- and 8½-minute moving averages are positioned below the 17-minute baseline, especially (if not exclusively) when the latter measure is sloping to the south. Take profit if and when the 2⅓-minute measure decides to reverse direction. Consider attempting to get in on the ground floor of possible whole sale reversals if and when all of these measures cross to the opposite side of the 37-minute baseline. And finally, consider attempting to get in on the ground floor of possible four-hour reversals if and when all of the above measures, including the 37-minute baseline, cross to the opposite side of the two-hour trend line (the center of the four-hour price flow). Note that pullbacks tend to be constrained to the 0.07% deviation level of the 17-minute price range envelope on the far side of a sloping 37-minute baseline.
Consider also that the statistical probability of these pullbacks occurring at six-hour temporal support or resistance levels is higher than in other regions.