B*A*R*R*O*N*S GAME( Do I Renew? Edition...)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Feb 24, 2007.

  1. Well the little envelope came " 3rd Reminder " to renew and I really don't want to. the new smaller size, the roundtable has come and gone, I really wanted to thumb through this issue without finding an idea and then I could say you see last issue no luck this issue no luck, street.com is stealing the idea... I'm out of here...
    But after a peruse, of course, i did find some interesting stuff, so here we go....

    First off Alan Abelson makes an error! Yikes. In his second paragraph talking about China he refers to our stock market beating the pants off every market across the globe-- surely he meant China's market up 70% or whatever grotesque figure it is. The Paper plays down the sub prime effect on the brokers- so much for that short idea!-- Wed the 28th will be the revision to GDP-- that's a day on my calendar circled-- the markets reaction there will dictate wether we continue up at a fair pace. As early to mid march arrives the planetary cycles become aligned and that's when poop can hit the fan.

    >Bull Piece on Ultimate Electronics PLEASE should of been in last weeks issue it was up huge for the week.

    >Bull piece on Brookfield BAM- an asset management co into infrastructure plays but you know they switch stuff around, create holding companies and such it's tough to get your full bang of the infrastructure play.. well run though for sure. For a conservative investor. Also check out MIC from australian bank Macquarie buying up all our toll roads!

    > Bull FifthThird piece. i get a spam request for all my FifthThird bank info every day... and I'm not even a customer!

    > In tech week we talk about L-1 Identity Solutions
    (ID) Insider Buying @ $15.02 this will be the one that runs monday. Other interesting Insider Buys... I like this unknown Terremark TWW and am doing alot more research on the name Chart wise it's interesting too. I'll be in this by end of week, if I can get another point out of GIGM. Let's move on...

    > Ah Ha just as i suspected did you all read my musings while I was supposed to be meditating during a workout? I spoke about my wanting to short QCOM... well my argument is explained even to myself in the plugged in column. Why does it take so much more guts to short a stock than to buy it?

    >Interview with really scary looking guy. Looks like the dude who married Eliz Taylor and gave her that really gay kiss. This guy has gloom and doom written all over him- his name is Mark Roberts and wouldn't you know he's a really good shortseller.

    > Short Mohawk. Man when this thing super spiked last week I said to myself how can a carpet maker be doing this in the face of the housing downturn? Read Mr Robert's take on the name. Bottom line they have raised prices TWICE in the last 14 months pissing off their customers in an attempt to regulate margins and their sales are STILL going down in the carpet biz (60% of total sales). Look out below.

    > Some of his recent victories of course my RACK (why didn't he call or write me?) RAIL, IndyBancorp, Administaff and a company that rents trailers to construction sites- WLSC. Now he's shorting the above mentioned MHK and he's taking on another high flyer in FOSL. I've been pimp slapped by FOSL last year so I am familiar with managements ability to screw up and the damn stock is up a good amount. Sounds like another really good idea. I'm just so glad he didn't say Movado MOV which I recently bought in a big way. His last short Heathways - gives good reasons there too-- What does a big sourpuss like this like? > That's always a good way to go the shorts longs as it were- he likes SAI & RJET.
    The RJET really caught my eye because he explains the stability of their earnings in that they make long term contracts with airlines to fly under their brand and it's the airlines who are responsible for the fuel!
    Didn't know that last part! Damn. I'm going to have to re subscribe to this freakin' reduced size rag!

    I have to pick up the pace here folks- They do the same Baby Boomer story buy the old geezer stocks that we have seen so many times before. Oh fire the EDITORS*

    European trader says Reuters must buy someone quick. I agree. they suggest FactSet FDS makes sense to me.

    In biggest movers Birtch Mtn @ $3.05 up 26% I have a long and troubled history with this stock I just can't get it right. They quarry and build roads up in Canada in the oil sands where they look for oil... So when oil spikes to $60 the viability of oil sands comes back into play and that sector gets going....

    Insider transactions also highlights L1 IDS Solutions,
    boy it's going to be a race to the window monday morning with the rest of America I'm not sure it's even worth it... other names OPTR Pharm 2 buyers,
    Encore Acquisition EAC 2 buyers...

    Looks like Force protect an old SI stock got hit after hours pretty good 4.5% might be more downside there monday morning.

    Ok we are done. Possible Longs are as follows:
    ID // TWW // RJET // SAI // FDS // BMD // OPTR & EAC. Possible Shorts include: MHK // FOSL // QCOM //
    HWAY // FRPT...
  2. The L1 is a bit of a saga it got downgraded Jan 25th 2007
    L-1 Identity Solutions Inc (NYSE: ID) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Oppenheimer, noting that the Transportation Security Administration is prepared to award the Transportation Worker Identification Card contract to Lockheed instead of L-1.

    Then now we have the official protest combined with the insider buy. looking at that "price " quote I have to imagine the L1 bid is lower but maybe not better if the Gov reconsiders the award... Ka Ching.

    News Search
    L-1 Identity Solutions Protests TSA ID-Card Pact Award

    Published: February 08, 2007 3:12 PM

    L-1 Identity Solutions Inc.'s (ID) Integrated Biometric Technology unit is protesting the Transportation Security Administration's award of a $69.5 million contract to Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT).

    The Stamford, Conn., security company said it believes the agency misread certain aspects of its proposal, including the price. L-1 filed its protest with the FAA Office of Dispute Resolution for Acquisition.

    The contract, awarded to Lockheed Jan. 29, was part of the Transportation Works Identification Card program, which will require that every transportation and maritime worker nationwide carry a tamper-resistant biometric credential. The program is part of an effort to better control security around the nation's ports, port facilities and vessels.

    L-1 had 2005 revenue of $66.2 million.
  3. This from my good friend Herb. on RJET

    Sticking with the airlines: Republic Airways (RJET), a hot-performing, low-cost regional air carrier, has been riding on on expectations that it would win a contract to provide regional service for post-bankrupt Delta. The company, which has been winning contract after contract, saw its stock pull back in the wake of US Air’s bid for Delta.

    I noted that while bulls believe the pullback is warranted, based on uncertainties tied to the merger, they also believe the company remains well positioned for the future no matter who is running Delta. If Republic does get a deal with Delta, the bulls say, Republic’s shares could be headed to the mid $20s.

    It should be noted that Delta awarded a small contract to Skywest (SKYW). It was for a small part of business Republic didn't bid on because it involved flying Bombardier plans -- the Embraer it flies. If nothing else the contract with Skywest shows Delta is not delaying its regional airline build-out.
  4. How about that hedge funds and freshly minted MBA's orgy piece? This is as bearish as you can get if you are a contrarian.
  5. I still have to read the MBA piece some guy in a chair turned me off I had to turn the page. The whole Hedge Fund debate on what restrictions to have is so funny -- they keep pushing it away- making it harder which of course makes people want it more and more. And then they are forced to seek it through fund of funds and other mutual fund type set ups and get lousy returns.
    1 million net worth w/house that's enough. The $200K income threshold is too high and they want to raise it! I'll never get in!
  6. That smug look on his face reminds me of Patrick Bateman. :D

  7. No you have the wrong area, its about Hedge Funds, not Murders and Executions.
  8. topdown


    I made the above call on Stoney's 2/10 Barrons game and it ended up working out for a nice profit. Now all the speculation is that the merger won't go through, and the stocks have tanked again. Both SIRI and XMSR will be in the news a bunch this week, XM announcing earnings Monday, SIRI announces Tuesday and Mel is scheduled to appear in front of a Congressional Hearing on Wednesday. All of these present opportunities for the merger to remain in the news and obviously the companies will put on a positive spin at every opportunity (and Mel is one hell of a salesman). Furthermore, I think the odds of approval are much better than 50 / 50 that the analysts are spewing. Don't you think the big money behind SIRI and XM are lining all these politicians and regulators coffers? That's what makes the world go 'round.

    Now - which one to play, SIRI or XMSR? It probably doesn't matter because any positive spin should make them both move. XMSR is trading at a discount to the 4.6 merger multiple, so it could have more pop. But SIRI is closer to it's bottom so it has less room to fall if news is negative. So SIRI looks to be the safer pick. I think I will just take the profits from last week's trade and buy a little of both.

    That folks, is my BARRON's trade of the week.
  9. Vishnu


    For what it's worth, I've been posting a pretty comprehensive Barrons roundup over here:

    <a href="http://stockpickr.com/members/problog/76/">Barrons Roundup</a>.

    In addition to the usual stuff, we cross reference each stock from each article with all the other hedge funds and mutual funds that own it. Plus some other stuff.
  10. Vishnu we do things a little differently at ET- we actually put our money where our mouths are and trade these names. So it's best not to confuse folks with " other " Barrons windups roundups or dumbnuts. This is the O*R*I*G*I*N*A*L B*A*R*R*O*N*S game> often (these days) copied but never imitated !
    #10     Feb 26, 2007