Discussion in 'Stocks' started by NY0BScalper, Nov 2, 2008.

  1. So I noticed this thing hasn't come in yet... is it because people believe that the auto-repair/parts industry will not be negatively affected by a global recession? Seems to me like this stock has no business being as high as it is, or being so close to 52 week highs. I shorted 100 shares the other day around 122, and am considering adding substantially more at higher prices, close to 130. I think a target of 100 is very very reasonable, but that chart I could see the long term uptrend changing on... 75 or lower 6 months from now.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this play? What's holding it up?

    What am I missing?
  2. 1) During bear markets and recessions, there can be increased sales of automotive replacement parts to people who hold onto their cars for a longer period of time before buying a newer one.

    2) Has the company been doing a share buyback?

    3) Are there takeover rumors?

    4) Is the number of new stores continuing to grow at or above expectations?
  3. I suggest you stop by some of them in your area and see how busy they are. My town started with 1 and in the last 2 years has built 2 more and they are always packed.
  4. It's purely market folly. AZO is doomed with high leverage and increasing inventory.

  5. piezoe


    Azo has broken its trendline to the downside. It's made one failed attempt on low volume to return to its high. Support is at 155.33 if it breaks that on volume it may be a good short.
  6. piezoe


    Following up on my earlier post below. I'm watching AZO. It has broken its trendline on both daily and weekly charts. Last Friday, Apr 17, It made a second failed attempt at the prior high on lower than average volume. Today it has made a third attempt and is succeeding in making a new high (barely!). Personally i would not go long here even if there is a follow through in subsequent days (and if I was long, i'd take this opportunity to exit.) , however depending on volume and whether there is failure to carry through, this could be a high probability short. I would suggest watching AZO very closely in the next few days.

  7. piezoe


    AZO continued its weakness on Friday and ended down (161) in an otherwise up market. It has developed some support near 161 and major support near 155. On this past Wednesday it reached a new high of 169, but then closed down near the low of the day. It has been weak since. I was short. Whipped out on Wednesday with a small loss. Re-entered short and closed half my position Friday at a nice profit. I will add to my short position this coming week depending on what transpires. Should it break below 155, then it is likely to come down to 145 and fill the earlier gap. At this point it remains a promising candidate for shorting, especially if it pulls back but can not lift over 169.
  8. I am going to buy what you sell short.

    My target in the near term: $250.

    Target in 2 years: $500.

    Like RTP, for instance .. from $170 to $500.
  9. i think any shorts could easily go to 155. but over-all look for longs on this one.
  10. During the last 'major' recession in the early '80s one sector that was doing well was retail auto parts. At least at the retail sales level. Some companies were actually opening new stores in the middle of the recession.

    Retail auto parts don't quite correlate to the 'regular' economic cycle, at least that's the thinking from some people out there.

    But since today's cars are much more reliable and the # of DIY home mechanics probably less than ever, I don't quite share the above argument.
    #10     Apr 26, 2009