AYE - FE Stock Merger and Options Markets

Discussion in 'Trading' started by livevol_ophir, Feb 11, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    AYE is trading up 2.21 to 23.23. FE is down 2.46 to 39.00. Note that the IV30&#8482's are identical.

    The news is presented in the article - Essentially a stock deal where AYE = 0.667* FE to close in a year +. Before today, AYE was trading 21.02 and FE 41.46 ---> 0.667*41.46 = 27.65 per share for AYE. That's a 27.65 - 21.02 = 6.63 spread.

    Since the news the spread has converged significantly ---> 39*.0667 = 26.01. So 26.01 - 23.23 = 2.78 spread. 2.78 still indicates measureable uncertainty.

    The Charts Tab snapshot for each is included in the article. Notice FE dipping and AYE rising.

    A few things to watch out for now.
    (1) AYE vol should converge to FE vol as certainty grows - it can be higher if certainty dissipates, but it should generally not be lower (watch out for dividends and other special situations).
    (2) AYE should approach (2/3)*FE
    (3) Cheap vol bets (purchases) around deal closing if you are a seller of the deal (or if there is edge).
    (4) Expensive vol bets (sales) if you are a buyer of the deal (or if there is edge).
    (5) Good spreads stock to stock (in options).

    Watch the options markets moving forward - line by line with the stock prices as well as the implied rates (divergence can cause hard to borrow rates - see TLB deal <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/02/tlb.html"><b>HERE</b></a> for an example).

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    For details, charts, vols, prices go here: