http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873305237 there is always hope. Q1
I agree this is a situation that bears watching. I posted this: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=10856 A recent article from FT: http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1035873342669 I don't know why this is not getting any air time on TV or the major news sources. If this develops into something serious, which it easily can, then its consequences would reverberate throughout the Middle East. There is a tense standoff since the beginning of this recent situation. The students have remained on campus and not ventured out onto the streets. The police are trying to be a buffer between them and the 'Basij' or religious militia (akin to the Taliban roaming religious hooligans of the Ministry of Vice and Virtue). The moment the students take their protests out of the campus, there are millions of everyday Iranians ready to join them. Unlike most countries in the Middle East the populace in Iran is very pro Western and has over its history reject again and again the yoke of religious extremism. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time that it does once more.
"Unlike most countries in the Middle East the populace in Iran is very pro Western and has over its history reject again and again the yoke of religious extremism. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time that it does once more." IRAN is a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy. It has been for over 25 years. That was the whole reason we helped Sadam in the Iran/Iraq war.
The 1979 Revolution happened about 22 years ago. That was when the extremist clergy came to power. At the beginning people welcomed them and thought that they would bring a certain morality to the corrupt regime of the Shah. But after a short time it became apparent to the people that these guys were actually worse. Those that installed the IRI are a very very small minority of the population. But unfortunately they took advantage of a vacuum in power to sieze the country. They offered a path and a country that was in a state of chaos took it without examining first the consequences it may have in the future. The ruling class of clergy have no interest in morality, or the good of the people. Their only concern is gaining power and wealth and maintaining that status quo. Immediately after 9/11 the average ordinary people of Iran were the ONLY ones in the Middle East to show their solidarity with the US by holding candle lit vigils and solemn demonstrations of empathy. Eventhough the 'Basij' viciously attacked women and children in the crowds to break them up, they returned night after night to show the world their thoughts were with the victims and not the perpetrators of that heinous act. That tells you what is in the hearts of the average Iranian. A previous time (a long time ago) when Iran threw off the yoke of religious extremism was during the reign of Nasredin Shah (father of the deposed Shah in 1979) At that time soldiers tore off the 'chador' of women!! Can you imagine that? Almost 100 years ago, somewhere in the Middle East a country was brought kicking and screaming into the modern world and freed from the midaeval and barbaric culture of religious extremism....sad that it was only destined to dive headlong into it again in 1979.
Maybe I'm grasping at straws but some part of the up move in oil today may be atributable to news out of Iran. The latest word from Khamenei (the Supreme Leader - although unelected, he controls almost everything) is that he has ordered the review of the death sentence of Aghajari. This is a huge deal as the hardliners seem to be backing down. Their tactic seems to have backfired on them. Many within their own were criticising the death sentence saying that it was much too harsh. But in reality there was no way they could win. It was a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't. If they went ahead and executed Aghajari, he would have become a symbol and a martyr for the reformers and caused their voices to grow even louder in protest. And if they released or lightened his sentence (which it appears what is going to happen) then the reformers would interpret this as the consequence of their weeklong protests and realize that what they did and said indeed does matter. This is exactly what has happened. Rather than become molified at having their request enacted, the students are instead emboldened to press on and increase their demands. On Monday they spilled into a small section of the street outside of the campuses. You must realize that what they are doing is extremely brazen!! They are shouting things like "Death to the Taliban in Kabul and Tehran" and singing the pre-revolution national anthem of Iran. You simply can't do that in Iran and get away with it. But they are somehow....at least for now. Who knows what will happen....the germ of a potential second revolution is certainly within this latest protest and begs a close watch on the unfolding scenario. http://www.iranmania.com/news/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=13011&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs
Things are getting really really tense in Tehran. Now the common people are protesting in the street and clashing with the Basiji (Iran's answer to the Taliban's Ministry of Vice and Virtue's bullies). They streamed into the streets to commemorate the murder of two (a couple) political activists who were murdered in their home in 1998. http://www.iranmania.com/news/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=13090&NewsKind=CurrentAffairs
hi babak ! thx for sharing that with us, very interesting stuff, amazing that you don't hear anything in the media about these developments, i certainly wish the students and the other normal people in iran well. cheers
Yes, it is a very interesting situation. Here is the way I think it can play out.... Venezuela and Iran governments are both besieged by a popular uprising of the people. If they are thrown from power, the most likely replacement will be MUCH more US friendly. This, combined with the imminent take-over of Iraq will mean a major power shift in oil. Suddenly, almost overnight, the US and not OPEC will control the world's oil supply. And how long do you think they will wait until they write themselves a check for all those years when they were paying so much for oil? (In Iran oil is 6 cents/ litre....how much you paying now?) Now....imagine the effect on the economy. It will be like putting the world economy on amphetamines. Suddenly, material costs will plummet. The economy will go into overdrive. Inflation may be a factor and interest rates rise as a result. ok, ok, I know I'm just speculating ... but wouldn't it be incredible if this actually went down?
Excellent last post Babak... I agree with everything you have said... I have consistently maintained that, at the end of the day, it's all about US control of oil... I am happy to see that our opinions are not as dissimilar as I had initially thought...
I hope this isn't one of those CIA operations that eventually goes awry and ends up costing the USA more than it would have if the CIA hadn't engaged the op. If the dead Shah of Iran is installed as king, then we'll know it was a CIA op.