Hi Awash, Be very careful in attempting to copy a few guys trade methdology own your own or without close supervision from the trader your trying to simulate... Remember that warning I on occassion will post via adding (no pun intended) some humor into the situation??? Parental Guidance Alert: Do not attempt ***** scale in method...adding to a loser...(he's eventually profitable on the trades while most traders aren't) unless you have parental consent. To finish a discussion we were having in the room about the psychological barriers of adding to a profitable position in comparison to adding to a losing position... We really need to understand a bigger picture instead of a small time frame on an intraday chart before attempting any kinds of adds or scaling into a profitable position or losing position (I don't recommend the latter for any newbie nor veteran trader...I've tried it myself and get burnt more often than not). Yep...not only should you be trading from both sides of the coin (Long and Short)... you should start documenting all the missed trade signals...times and type of position and where you most likely would have exited for a profit had you taken the trade... to help overcome that tendency to trade from one side only. By the way...trading one way only isn't always bad if your with the trend and then on the sidelines when that trend is going the other way. Also...as your finding out...don't ignore those reversal signals while your still in a trade... your obviously finding out about that important fact as they tend to eat away at the profits as the possible new trend begins going against your profitable position. Last of all...because your using Market Breadth Indexes (VIX, TRIN, TICK or whatever)...don't ignore them especially during those parabolic surges or strong trends... they provide tons of hints and will often tell you not to be Shorting a strong uptrend or those infamous creeper uptrends. Thus, trade #5 and beyond worries me because by that time the VIX was already pushing down very hard and had verification via its 5eMA, 50eMA lines declining below a declining 200eMA line after the 5eMA & 50eMA line crossed below the 200eMA line... Via the 1min chart interval for the VIX 5eMA and Price crosses below the 200eMA @ 2:23pm est (Hint: Be careful about Shorting) 50eMA line crosses below the 200eMA line @ 2:34pm est (Hint: No more Short positions) At this time...after the last key crossover...Short positions are HIGH RISK. Via the 1min chart interval for the NYSE TICK The NYSE TICK after 2:23pm est was testing its 1000 level often while not testing it's 0 level...another sign that Short positions has more risk than Long positions. (Note: Be careful about Shorting the TICK when it test the 1000 level...if it does test 1000 and not 1200. I myself use only one bearish candlestick pattern if I decide to Short while dependent upon the TICK for confirmation when its > 1000 < 1200...mainly in the a.m.) In fact...the NYSE TICK didn't test its 0 level until around 3:45pm est. The above was also something talked about in the room. Best to be on the sidelines if your only willing to play the Short side of the coin during situations like this afternoon... situations that are repetitive enough to develop a profitable trading plan for such. NihabaAshi
Finally, I was able to stick to my plan and follow the rules. I didnât deviate from my system today and as a result I produced some profits. Although I was a bit conservative and hesitant entering position I was able to manage each trade perfectly. Over the past four days Iâve been suffering from a lack of self-control and a strong will to trade against the trend. I donât know whether today was a good day for me because the market was down and short positions work perfect in declining markets or a result of me just placing good trades. Whatever happens I feel this rut Iâve been is over. My confidence is pretty high now considering my results. I need to continue to place trades with the direction of the market whether long or short. Trade#1 â [Short 1035.00 9:45 EST & Cover 1034.00 9:47 EST] [ P/L: + 1 ] No divergence signal; price broke my new support level and I snatched one point. The entry was a bit late! Trade#2 â [Short 1035.00 10:14 EST & Cover 1034.00 10:19 EST] [ P/L: + 1 ] Took good divergence signal on 1-minute chart and I snatched another point. This entry too was a bit! Trade#3 â [Short 1033.00 10:56 EST & Cover 1032.25 10:58 EST] [ P/L: + .75 ] Price just kept breaking each intraday support level. Went short again, wanted a point but I waited in line a long time until I adjusted my target to 1032.25. Trade#4 â [Short 1032.50 15:22 EST & Cover 1032.25 15:35 EST] [ P/L: + .25 ] small divergence signal brewing on my 1-minute chart (signal confirmed at 1033) but I wanted more follow through due to my other indicators. I waited a reasonable amount of time without much follow through and closed the trade. For tomorrow: Do exactly what I did today; STICK TO THE RULES! I need to place both long and short positions based on market conditions. This will help me from leaning too much to the short side. I hope I can maintain a strong level of self-control tomorrow.
Entry was not late..it was great..look at the basic 4/9/18 simple moving averages when u entered the trade........10 min chart.....what do you see????....why all the other stuff?.......charts 3 years old show the same stuff....too simple?......you are starting on the wrong end of the process...acquire the ability to trade the longer term charts and then shorten them if you must....your emotions during a trade, if put on a chart, would be whipsaw to the max as long as u trade the short term blasts to quick exit.. TODAY WAS 2 SELLS AND 1 BUY.....FOR MANY POINTS...
You said October will be a tough. Month ......TRADE WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE SCREEN IN FRONT OF YOU ONLY....NEVER ANTICIPATE THE MARKET OR USE EXTERNAL INFORMATION...IF YOUR SYSTEM WORKS AS IT SHOULD.....NOBODY KNOWS WHAT TOMORROW WILL BE, LET ALONE WEEKS, MONTHS, ETC... GOOD LUCK, SIR, AND I REALLY MEAN IT...
Awash, Did you have any Long signals today (missed trade signals) ??? If so...where and why do you think you missed the trade(s). NihabaAshi
Niha, I had several long signals. I wasn't going to take most of them and I think that's because I convinced myself not to. Sometimes I feel better going short. The signal came at 9:49 EST and I could have entered at 1034. However, ECON news was scheduled for 10am and I didn't want to chance it. What do you think? Actually, you went long on the same signal when everyone esle was short.
Niha, I wasn't going to take this Long position after such a strong down move. I completely avoided it. I could have entered at 11:09 EST at 1032.25 easily.
At 12:08 EST on my 3 minute chart price bounced off my support level pushing higher during the lunch. I should have been long at 1032.50 but avoided it. This wasn't a divergence signal but rather a signal off a reliable s/r level. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=346305 Look around 12:05 to 12:10 EST
For most of the session I was on the sidelines do to technical difficulties with my charting package. I think Iâm finally out of this rut. I put a long position on today which I havenât done successfully in a while. Trade#1 â [Long 1034.25 14:13 EST & Exit 1036.00 14:18 EST] [ P/L: + 1.75 ] Divergence signal on 1-minute chart; clean entry with good exit.