I decided to post my journal online. I've been keeping a journal for quite sometime now but I never wanted to post my trades. I'm actually using ET as a place to store my graphs, pictures etc. My journal notes will be posted at another private website. However, I will attempt to explain each trade in detail to anyone interested in providing feedback. Thanks in advance! Daily S/R Levels can be found here: http://home.houston.rr.com/aarondwashington/ Caveat: intraday numbers change daily Trading System
Entry & Exit Rules with Rationale. If you can't see the words clearly just click the image and enlarge it by holding your mouse cursors over the image, an icon will appear in the lower right corner (click it).
Today's trades! Trade#1 â Overall bad entry because I jumped the gun on this trade. There wasnât a clear signal plus I didnât wait for a confirmation candle to form. I was anticipating price would reverse because earlier there proved to be some resistance around 995. Next time I need to wait for a confirmation candle inconjunction with a signal from my indicators. [Short 995 @ 10:40 EST & Stopped out 997 @ 10:45 EST] Trade#2 â For some reason I wanted the ES to go down. I should have known it wasnât going to retrace significantly because the NQ showed a lot of upward strength plus so did other indices. I should have closed this position at 997.25 eight minutes after opening it but I thought a few sell stops would be below the 997 level and had price traded below there it would have triggered a few stops sending price down lower because the opposite happened in trade#1. After this trade I completely stopped trading! [Short 998.25 @ 13:47 EST & Covered 998 @ 13:59 EST] For tomorrow: Since Iâm a trend follower I need to execute trades in the direction price is going or look for the overall market trend and momentum. Today there was a lot of upward pressure on the market and for some reason I must have wanted price to go down instead of up. Next time I need to wait for signals and stay with the trend. Remember: If you can't see the image clearly you can enlarge it by holding your mouse cursor over the image, an icon will appear in the lower right corner (click it).
In prior post Iâve highlighted my trading system and market entry and exit rules (Please review). However, I didnât explain how I decide to take a trade. I am a TREND FOLLOWER, so I try not to place a trade unless price is in a trend and Iâm usually strict about adhering to this rule. The system I use is a divergence system that relies on double tops and bottoms, higher lows/highs during up trends and lower highs/lows in downtrends. I use candlestick charts in short time intervals, preferably 1 & 3 minute charts only. Buy & Sell signals are generated by comparing price on a 1-minute chart to the MACD signal line and a slow stochastic oscillator. Signal confirmation is achieved once price & both indicators are moving in the same direction. I also use intraday support & resistance levels to determine price trend & direction. At any given time Iâll place a trade with the trend if price considerably breaks a support or resistance level, ignoring all indicators. The charts Iâm posting will only reflect 3-minute candles albeit signal confirmation comes from a 1-minute chart. I may have to post two 1 â minute charts. I decided to post my journal online because I want more constructive criticism, not to mention because Iâve been paper trading since March 2003 and I plan on going live in October. Truthfully, my situation is similar to other novice traders here at ET. I too, have taken losses early on but I decided to stop trading real capital because I realize the losses stemmed from me not knowing what the hell I was doing. Consequently, Iâve spent the past five months learning the basics; reading and studying the market (futures mkt). More importantly, following ES price movements. Iâve learned that trading is a slow and gradual process because there are multiple factors that influence market sentiment from monthly economic data releases to world/national news events. Iâm hoping I can learn more with this Journal so feel free to provide constructive criticism. By the way, my biggest problem is CONFIDENCE to enter a trade. I know when & how to enter a trade but Iâm always telling myself to just wait (Hesitation) and see what develops and sure enough the market moves on without me. I infrequently make mental mistakes like enter without a confirmation and/or not take trades consistent with my trading methodology.
Hello Awash, I use a trend following system (slope of 20 ma indicates trend) to trade SPY and I take my signals from ES. I went Long just as you went short (trade taken on the 5 min chart). If you look at the 1 min chart, there is an inverse head and shoulders pattern in play at that point. Plus, the Gap held as support. I don't understand how your rules justified the trade. On trade 2 you shorted within the context of an intraday consolidation pattern after a strong move up. I rarely made money on these types of trades, therefor, I don't take them anymore. At this point, the trend had changed from up to sideways. Again, I don't see how your rules Justified this trade. Good Luck
Hey fan27, my trades were all over the map yesterday! Thanks for sharing your thoughts. As for TODAY: It was an excellent day for trend trading but I didnât have my head in the game nor did I try to eliminate the mental errors/mistakes I always make and have been making for over a month now. However, I do feel as if I placed trades consistent with my trading methodology. Trade#1 â I waited to see which direction price would move after the Mich. Survey released at 10:00 EST. Once the numbers hit the ES quickly broke out of its small sideways range to the downside. I entered short a bit late at 998, price pushed down to a low of 996.25 before it reversed slowly off my pivot of 996.50. This trade turned out bad because I failed to close the trade and didnât take a long position with the new reversed move. I finally closed the trade with a loss of 2 ticks but I could have a least made a point plus more if I took the opposite position. [Short 998 10:05 EST & Cover 998.50 10:24 EST] Trade#2 â After watching the ES early on trade from a high of 1002 down to 996 back up to 1003. I decide to go short after price reversed off my resistance level of 1002.50 around 11am EST. I covered this position after price stopped at the new support level of 1000.50 and lingered around it for a considerable period of time. I wasnât going to repeat what happen in trade #1. Mistakes for today: 1) 10:13 EST Failed to close position on reversal signal in timely manner 2) 12:16 EST Failed to enter market on a double top pattern (missed opportunity) 3) 13:15 EST Fell asleep during the lunch hour after getting tired of watching price (distraction) Stopped trading at 14:00 EST (Too many mistakes today) Remember to enlarge chart for better viewing!
The only economic news I saw (consumer sentiment) was scheduled for 9:45 EST. Did I miss something? regards, Bruce Hawkins
The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey was scheduled to release at 9:45 EST. I don't think you missed anything because it came out on time, however if you did, that information is available at http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html. I'm sure you're aware that most news station will report this information upon its release and will continue to report it as financial news throughout the trading session (roughly ever hour). I normally don't trade off of economic news because it clouds my judgement and I become more indecisive. Nevertheless, I heard the survey report around 10 EST, fifteen minutes after it was released at 9:45 EST and didn't place my first trade until 10:05 waiting to confirm price direction. I realize I was a bit late with the report but I do this purposely. As I become a better trader and eliminate my weaknesses, I will then attempt to trade off economic reports. But that'll be a while!!!