Jack has mentioned this document a few times in this thread. Would someone be willing to direct me to its location? I have been unable to find it thus far. Thank you, river
Looks like Jack never made it past the talking stage. Three quick examples: 1) Listen to Jack crow about this trade before it went bad (mp3 file at link): http://www.mediafire.com/?0ielxnmeiro <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2023032> 2) Jack's failed September 1st prediction: "As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life." http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747 3) Yet another great call from wrong way Hershey!!! <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2656562>
Your perspective is valid in certain situations and totally wrong in others. I agree for simple linear systems curve fitting is a problem. . However the essence of non-linear predictive analytics is a very sophisticated form of what you tell us to discard. In fact you can't do it without out it. It works as well. So: 1) Simple linear = avoid curve fitting, etc, 2) Complex non-linear predictive = use curve fitting to discover what is both currently unknown to you and is predictive of future market activity. In both cases you don't know what you've found until the system is frozen and tested on out of sample data. If out of sample works the same and on going it works the same on live data, then you have discovered something that works. Do not discard that because it was not discovered by the theoretically correct method of discovery. There are complex non-linear predictive conditions in Foex EUR/USD for example that work exactly the same today as they did 28,000 bars ago. (+ or - a few % in W/L ratio over hundreds of trades regardless of the where tested in that timeline)
Regarding the archived videos and illustrated transcriptions, PM me how to get them to you. ET does not have an achive capability that I understand. Attached is the current approach we use to handle the chart posted. BUT we do not trade SPY. When I made the Friday end of day comment it was related to an instrument called the ES. To handle the continuation of a trend (on any level) from the close to the open, the approach is to equate the day's close to the next day's open and use the gap value to adjust the "containers on all levels. The H and L of the bar 81 are transposed as well to determine the bar to bar relationship from the 9 cases. This is logged while the bar is forming. Today the open was an OB and it set an FTT in place and a short followed on several levels. Depending on skill level, people can trade subs, BBT's or Tapes. In any case, the trade is from FTT to FTT. I email, daily, a synopsis of the day, the annotated charts and, often a textual narrative to give focus on what is ahead and the next steps for drilling. It is like the bootcamp thread a while back. Sometimes, a few bars into the open I email the day's beginning as a support to those who are annotating and trading on various levels. Enjoy.
Only you, Jack, would try to defend shorting in a strongly uptrending market. And to top it off, you've doctored the pic to make it look like the market went down instead of up Attached is what the S&P 500 did in numbers, which won't be as easy for you to obfuscate: <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2697727>
More fantasy from the mind of Jack Hershey My original chart of Jack's 20 Nov 09 market call is on the left. Look carefully at how he altered it on the right :eek: Sorry Jack but mind pretzel won't make you a profit shorting the S&P in an uptrend. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2697782>
Is there some reason you and Jack have this endless argument over something.....I'm not sure what as the subject isn't interesting enough to do anything except scan qucikly. Is the goal for one or the other of you two to admit defeat or that the price was such and so on this date or the chart or track records are rigged? If so to what end? Or is this playing to some unseen audience? I'm just curious...nice colors though.
jerry, could have been a nice discussion, but i refuse to post in between this BS that spreads all over my screen here. some things never change ... whatever ... take care ...
Well, let's take action...start a new thread and let Jack and the trend guy here to post very colorful attacks on each other endlessly. The first step would be to farme a topic, question or assumption. I'm open to suggestions. Let me know what you think.