AVNR revisited

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by pumpanddumper, Apr 23, 2007.

  1. Been tracking this one closely and actually bought some on Friday at around 4.30. Was gonna bail out at close but I have a hunch about this one. Started reading the yahoo forum and interesting to see the points of views of others. I don't know if the longs are just pumping it and likewise with the shorts. I'm hoping for a gap up Monday but may just hold this one in hopes for a double in a few months.

    Interesting that Ridgeback purchased this on Friday. http://www.secinfo.com/dSEyn.u9s.htm.

    They have proven to have a nose for money with these pharma's proven with their ACOR purchase last Fall. Does this mean anything really significant for a run up? Any ET guys here playing this one? Will be interesting to watch this one this week again...

    I'm not sure these guys are the real deal or not?
  2. hels02


    Ugh. I lost my ASS on this one last week. Probably my biggest single loss in the past 3 years (not counting my always forgiveable, and free, AMD). Against my better judgement I'm STILL holding it.

    I hope your right. I couldn't tell you why I still have to look at this red POS in my account, but I generally do things for good reason, even if they are incomprehensible at the time. It crawled back up a bit Friday, that's a good sign. Maybe I need a vacation, or just more sleep. :D
  3. Yeah, I have a couple red pieces of shit in my account but this baby will be green tomorrow I hope.

    Let me guess, you bought at open on Thursday morning around $6? I wouldn't worry as hopefully it crosses that this week. Friday's close looked strong. I may buy more if it dips tomorrow. If it opens higher I may unload it but my position isn't as big as other trades this year so may just hold and hope for the best.
  4. Nice buy Long term 16 + Target
    Seems this Jump might followed by a correction south to 1.00
    So maybe some good stops
  5. I would take some off the table in pre-market. Its trading up, but it seems to be burning off a bit. I could be wrong, but thats my gut feeling.
  6. I'm waiting for the open at hopefully $5.30...I may let it run or I may ring the register and reenter. I don't know right now but fun watching this baby.

    Wish I bought more on Friday but I wussed out
  7. I doubt that they will stay alive long enough for them to ever finish another clinical trial. They had already lost two partners this year and today Astra-Zeneca pulled the plug on a cardio drug they were working with AVNR on.

    Sales from Abreva and Fazaclo will not be enough to pay for even one Phase 3 trial, and they will probably need to have two new trials using the 10 mg quinidine dose, not the single trial the company said they expected they would need "based on conversations with FDA staff" and their "experience with the drug approval process." They can't substitute pharmacodynamic modeling for a Phase 3 trial. Drugs require two successful P3 trials in order to get approved, and AVNR has ZERO Phase 3 trials using 10 mg of quinidine. They hope the drug will work at the lower dose, but they have no human data to base that hope on. The modeling data they have on CYP2D inhibition of quinidine metabolism is from old journal articles using rats. It's all smoke and mirrors.

    If you want a hype stock, buy CBLI, at least they have federal funding from the DoD to pay for the drug they're developing.

    AVNR had a massive short squeeze from people buying Wednesday. The company made material misrepresentations during the morning CC saying they they "believed" they would need only one more clinical trial for the diabetic neuropathy indication, but the FDA has already told them (which they are allowed to do despite the SPA) that the maximum allowable dose of quinidine is 10 mg, while the trial results they announced last week (begun in 2005) used an unacceptably high dose of 30 mg of quinidine.

    I shorted AVNR AH on Wednesday at $5.06 and $5.20. There are no shares available for shorting or i'd short more.

    This morning i was looking at the 2.5 puts and oddly enough, the June 2.5s were asking 15 cents, while the May 2.5s were asking 20 cents. I should have grabbed the June 2.5s at 15 cents while they were on offer. Someone else got 40 contracts at that price, which was a buy.

    So. It's a long shot now that the daily chart is looking ugly for longs, but i have a limit order in to try to buy 40 contracts at 15 cents but i doubt i'll get a fill.

    AVNR will be tied up in litigation over misleading investors duing that CC about needing only one additional clinical trial. The fast money that came will not have the patience to wait around for a clinical trials.

    WOW! This is exciting! I got a fill on those June 2.5 puts at 15 cents.
  8. hels02


    Did I mention how bad this stock sux? :D

    So, tell me... what do you think the result of all that short interest will be:)?
  9. I'm sticking with AVNR for a month or two. Price is being manipulated right now by mm's, naked shorting(although I don't know where they get the shares to short)

    There is big institutional buying on this stock that I like. If it goes below 4, I am doubling down. If it hits 6 or higher in the next couple weeks, I might bail but then miss the next big gap up.

    Good news of financing (not a takeover) will jump up and bite some shorts in the ass causing a scared short squeeze.
  10. Go check the threads on Naked short selling. You';ll see how they do it.

    What was remarkable today was PPD. The stock was up 5 sticks, and they come out and say they received an FTD notice from Mar 23. They were on SHO. As you can see, these guys seem to have an uncanny sense for bad news (-: Remarkable, isn't it.

    That's why I doubt nothing of thestuff posted here. Probably all true. They just got caught flatfooted and the stock ran. They really have no choice but to dig in, and bring it lower. Sometimes they get killed, but not nearly enough. They generally know everything, even before they are supposed to. Be careful.

    Stay thirsty, my friends.
    #10     Apr 23, 2007