Averaging Down the real Holy Grail

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by Avgdownking, Oct 9, 2007.

  1. Have you watched index futures trade intraday?? There are times where the market is hinting that prices are going higher even though they are trickling down. Ever noticed how the market will take 2 hours to move down 3 pts and then 20 minutes to move up 6? This is where avging in is huge. But it takes a keen eye to see the market unfolding in such a way. There is a HUUUUGGGGEEEEE difference between what I've described and just avging down because prices are going lower.



     
    #101     Oct 14, 2007
  2. Identifying the trend is SEPARATE from position sizing: two integral parts of the same whole.
     
    #102     Oct 14, 2007
  3. I see them trading intraday every day. Indeed, I TRADE them everyday, if I see opportunity.

    I cannot imagine a WORSE instrument for averaging down than stock index futures (on a daytrading basis).
     
    #103     Oct 14, 2007
  4. Yes, I use OPM and wouldn't have it any other way...

    WOW, CRAZY!!! I assume he has a hell of an account size - wow... This is one of the reasons i like stocks for averaging down versus indices - at least i can diversify across non correlated stocks ... (though of course as ADK says I am sure averaging down can work in futures with a proper strategy).

    Notice how he mentions that he didn't stick to his new rules - he hasn't developed the necessary discipline yet... and without that you will get KILLED averaging down, up, etc...

    No offense taken on previous post! - my fault - took it too literally...

    Cheers,
    il2t
     
    #104     Oct 14, 2007
  5. No offense JJ but i don't agree.. i think avging up's attraction is that you are never in a loss position - ie. you buy at a 2nd, 3rd, etc... points above your average cost and get out even, small loss (on first contract only) or large win.

    Whereas avging down means you have an unrealized loss prior to adding to your position - this will reduce your average cost and allow you to get out even or in profit at a much lower price.

    Yes you do need knowledge, screen time, discipline to trade this method successfully... Avging down sounds easy but it really isn't - out of a group of 20 who join our prop firm you will get lucky to have 1 successful trader with a handful scraping by...
     
    #105     Oct 14, 2007
  6. One thing that I pay very close attention to is the 200 MA.
    Fundamentally speaking, averaging up is a great money management approach the big problem with it is that it requires great market reading skills and I think it works best on the big picture and not so much on the noisy daily basis. I'm sure Anekdoten does better in the long run with his technique unfortunately I tend to be wrong on the entry so many darn times I got not choice but to divide the entries at different support levels. I tried many times to cut my losses short the problem is I had so many of them the best I could do at the end of the month was break even so I had to cut corners and use averaging down so shoot me for using what works for me. In the case of MBA, I think his drawdown limit was completely out of wack but Im sure he will learn from his mistake. Great props for posting his winners and losers on a public board, hats off to him and hope he recovers asap. One courageous trader.

    ADK
     
    #106     Oct 14, 2007
  7. Read the posts in more detail before talking. ADK and I do not advocate irresponsible trading - we give you the framework to make avging down work. I'll assume you haven't fully read the posts prior to replying with your insults so I won't take offense...

    lol, it takes WAY more balls to hold a large position at support after avging down than it is to avg in while in a positive p/l position. Not knocking the avg uppers, I admire their ability, just not as risky...

    plz keep your comments constructive, everyone is entitled to their opinions...

    Cheers,
    il2t
     
    #107     Oct 14, 2007
  8. You should try reading up on AHG - you could improve your entries / entry confirmations ...
     
    #108     Oct 14, 2007
  9. My comments have been constructive. Simply put, averaging down is a weak strategy for weak traders. It is a strategy that ensures small positions on the inevitable big winners and larger positions on the inevitable big losers (even when using stops).

    Weak traders are inevitable losers.

    I don't mean to come across as harsh. I didn't make the rules here. That is just the way it is.

    I invite refutation of my statements, with cogent reasoning and sufficient evidence. :)
     
    #109     Oct 14, 2007
  10. It irks me that some traders here can be so dense. Tell me, what happens when I buy three support levels and dump them all at new highs or some major resistance point.
    Look at the charts, you see vertical price movements all the time making new significant trend changes every darn week?
    Accept the fact that the taboo notion of averaging down is so far up your ass, probably due to lack of discipline or someone stepping forward to tell it like it should be done (like me) that you just cant see past that.

    ADK
     
    #110     Oct 14, 2007