Average points in the ES

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by TTT, Jan 6, 2019.

  1. TTT


    Many times I open successful operations in the ES but they finally turn against me and I end up losing. What average points per operation is realistic? I mean the intraday.
  2. gaussian


    This is based entirely on your total exposure. A good starting place is the Kelly Criterion. It sounds like you are overlevered. Personally, I define success as closing a +EV trade. "I almost had it" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. You gotta know when to cut your losses or take your profits in the markets.
    TTT likes this.
  3. schweiz


    The amount of points the markets are willing to pay at that moment. But markets change all the time, so points change too.
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  4. tommcginnis


    If you don't have an empirically, historically, derived expectation for your trades, you are placing your capital at the whim of the market and yourself for each and every trade.
  5. schweiz


    His system is only developped for 50%. He knows when to get in, but he should also know when to get out... :wtf:
    tommcginnis likes this.
  6. Handle123


    Actual entry signals is 1% of a system, sounds like you missing the other 99% which is risk management. If you knew charting much better, to left of now might be showing you when not to get in, perhaps you went long and trendline off the 60 minute is 3 ticks away, might be better to not take signal or one of a dozen chart patterns developed before now which probabilities show less chances of being profitable. There is also ATR, when volatility goes up, risk and therefore targets must go up. At how many points of risk do most trades fail to be profitable? There is average swing lengths that are needed to be kept as well and taking the mean to determine at what juncture you are entering, low in trend or too high in trend, knowing mean wave ranges of recent trading allows you to guesstimate best areas for entry on retracements, there is MAE and MFE which show best risk and targets for recent volatility. There is also time of profitable trades, at end of this time, if not at breakeven stops, your target is now breakeven plus 1 tick.

    Most won't have a clue when they start day trading how difficult this really is. Better IMHO to learn how to do swing or long term trading before day trading, gives you time to learn more than the masses. Am not saying to quit, but unless you can compete with the big dawgs, you are going to remain bait.
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  7. speedo


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  8. In this environment, you should be averaging 4-6 points no problem per day. Periods of lower volatility, 1-2.
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  9. qlai


    Scale out! Don't turn winner into looser. Trading one lot is very hard, so be happy your entry was spot on. Obviously, no right answer but you have to find acceptable compromise.
    TTT likes this.
  10. qlai


    If your avg win is 5 points, what would your avg loss be?
    #10     Jan 6, 2019