Average pip moves for economic data releases

Discussion in 'Data Sets and Feeds' started by DoxazoAdonai, May 1, 2006.

  1. Does anyone know where I might find info on average pip movement based on release of key economic data?


    Scott <><
  2. ddunbar

    ddunbar Guest

    That's an impossible question to answer. Sometimes a wide trading range is created which merely back and fills itself for 2 or more hours.

    In EUR/USD, sometimes you can see 60p+ moves in one direction for a hour after the release only to be faded to zero and keep going for another 60pips the next hour.

    Trading news in Forex is generally bad business. Most of the time, news causes a lot of stops to be triggered which exaggerates volatility for an hour or two.

  3. sure.

    kathy lien in "day trading currency market" presents studies that show average % moves for each main data release.

  4. Actually, I have read Kathy's book, which is how I know the data is "out there". I was hoping for a source that is online-accessible and perhaps kept up to date dased on more recent data points, etc.


    Scott <><
  5. Ebo


    Unless you are an experienced trader, you will blow out your account within a week trading Fx during economic releases.

    Why not study the markets for 3-6 months and find an edge instead of being lazy?
  6. I have been studying the markets diligently for a couple months, and this has nothing to do with being lazy. It has to do with continuing to learn. I'm trying to establish a strategy akin to an options "straddle" whereby entry orders are set on either side in anticipation of a significant move one way or the other, set with very tight stops. Getting an understanding of how much the markets tend to move for the various data released would give me a better idea about where to safely (and profitably) set my entry points. Too close and they might be triggered prematurely. Too far away and I might enter with not much steam left to the move. I don't understand why you think that trying to learn and/or implement a strategy based on economic data moves is lazy. And you ought to try not to insult people you don't know. It's not an exceedingly admirable trait.

    Scott <><
  7. ddunbar

    ddunbar Guest

    I was sort of hoping to discourage the type of trading strategy you described in the preceding post. Tight stops on the hour or two of an economic release spell certain doom.

    There are ways to catch the breakout that is *sometimes* associated with economic releases. In fact there are only three major releases for any USD cross. PPI, CPI, and Unemployment. A fed annoucement is another but are not as regular as the other three.

    Nevertheless, in spite of what Kathy's book has to say, there is no real statistical advantage in trying to catch a move which *might* occur 3 times every month. I see moves that are significantly better than "three" news driven volatility moves on a regular basis.

    Here's a hint: Study the 30 min charts. Especially between the hours of 06:00 to 13:00 EST. Design a system based of that time frame.
  8. sccz97


    it seems you're determined to continue down this route until you either lose a lot of money or make shedload. I'm not one to stand by and see someone lose their life savings so I'll give you a few pointers.
    1. Find out which announcements can potentially affect the market. Just reading books and websites may not be enough, get your hands on an economic calendar and watch the markets when they get released.
    2. Have a look at historic announcements and their moves. A fairly good source of free tick data can be found at ratedata.gaincapital.com
    3. Perhaps draft up a spreadsheet with a list of estimates vs actual releases per country per announcement to determine what sort of deviation is required to provide a move of x pips.

    Just try these to start off with and I'm sure you'll figure out more ways of analysing the data.
  9. wincorp


    yes - google NewsTrader Pro. It has that and more.
  10. lacarpenter

    lacarpenter Guest

    I don't trade the news normally because I don't have quick enough access to the released data, but I do use alerts as a "heads up" in case I have any trades on that need protecting beforehand.

    A word of warning: If you pick a nice tight rational stop on a news trade, odds are you'll be taken out and then just as your straddle trade kicks in, it will reverse and stop out, too. You've got to think about who's trading against you. Those tight stops are way too easy for the boys to pick off just before the news spikes it the "correct" direction. And sometimes the market just reacts illogically at first and your trades get taken out that way. Stops: YES Tight stops: NO

    That being said, I occasionally trade the big reports when the conditions are right and I anticipate a fast 100 pip move:

    1. Long on 2 strongly negative correlated pairs to hedge the trade.
    2. Wide enough stops to evade the stop hunters.
    3. A Short limit order below the stop, to return to you the pips you sacrificed on your stoploss.

    Worked great today on the NFP with GBP/USD and USD/CHF.
    #10     Aug 4, 2006