I read your "method". The very basic model about the market is "market is random". So when you enter the market with TP = 3 points and SL = 3 points the chances of heating TP and SL are equal. In fact when ES hits TP it may be not filled. But when ES hits your SL it is 100% get filled and may be with a slippage. And you always substract commissions. So the mathematical expectation is against you. The edge should be to enter the market in such a moment when your chances to reach the Take Profit target are greater then chances to reach the Stop Loss level. But let us suppose the basic model. Let the ES be at 1000 points level. Then it rise to 1015 and starting to reverse. You place the first enter market order at the 15points * 33% = 5 points, so you place Buy Limit 1 ES at 1010. It got filled. Your Stop Loss is at the 1000 (10 points), your Take Profit is at the 1015 (5 points). But the probability of reaching the TP is higher then reaching SL. In fact the probability of reaching TP is 66% and SL is 33%, so the math expectation is: E(PnL 1st position) = TP * P(TP) + SL * P(SL) = 5 * .66 + (-10) * 0.33 = 0 Well, market moves further away from 1015 and at the 50% level you enter another 3 contracts. Your TP = 7.5 points, SL = 7.5 points, now the probability for TP = P(SL) = 0.5 E(PnL 2nd position) = 7.5 * 0.5 + (-7.5) * 0.5 = 0 Finally when market moves to 1005 you enter final 5 contracts. Now P(TP) = 0.33 and P(SL) = 0.66. Again E(PnL 3rd position) = 0 You wrote in your journal that "if market moves to the SL I lose only a few points". Do the math, you lose (1 * 10.0 + 3 * 7.5 + 5 * 5.0) * $50 = 57.5 points * $50 = $2875 You had lucky strike for last two weeks and you are already so sure you won the world. I hope this is a demo account, because in my scenario you will lose the last shirt.
It happened when the ES went down 65 points, it was locked for 4 hours. It could happen though in the morning and lock all day, last instance was at night. You should know what you are trading before you step into the snake pit. Do yourself a favor and just search for it online. Do yourself another favor and take a look at lumber.
It can happen one time per year or 3 times per year or whenever. It is like getting 00 in roulette. Just because it happened last time doesn't mean it can't happen on the next roll again.
I agree with you, but MOST traders lose money not because of black-swan events, but because of they do not have an edge.
Most lose because they let their emotions get the best of them. Even if they have an edge they start to change their system after a couple losses
this is totally my opinion so do your own DD...honestly, thinking about a -65 or -114 down ES scenario is crazy during RTH...now after hours, totally different situation...come on...plus, you should have stops set and an auto 'max loss $$'..set and would not get hit that hard...
Lock limit days, 5% moves of the indicies...these are market operating points when money is sitting there in piles to be picked up. Even 2% days present excellent opportunities for low risk/high profit extraction. If these are periods that cause fear of large losses or blown accounts, you have no business trading and you're better off putting your money in a safe place and getting a job you can enjoy doing. To succeed in this business requires avoiding paths that lead to irrationality and fear. Not an easy thing to do apparently.
u need a lot of money to begin daytrading. for example, to become a partime daytrader, u need at least a minimum $20K in the account and a full time daytrader, u need at least a minimum $100K in the account. That is only if u have a successful trading system.