Yeah, I agree 100% return and cautious don't go together. I just want to set a high goal so even with say a 50% return, I should be content. But true, I can only take what the market will give me. I am a big believer in letting the trade do what it will do, and just manage it accordingly.
Yes, I own all the trades I make. Occasionally, I'll put on a big trade hoping I'll get lucky. But it is a bad practice. Even if it ends up profitable, it just encourages me to trade too big in the future, where I would eventually take a huge loss.
Trading consistently and profitable long term should be the one and only goal. Artificial target numbers (50% or whatever) price just doesn't care and will do what it will do. Also unless you only go long, what major market indices do on a relative basis, shouldn't matter either. As an example, if the SPX winds up down on the year 30%, if I (btw I trade long and short) wind up down on the year 10% I not a happy camper regardless and think I won some kind of battle.
If you have a well tested trading model then you can estimate your average annual return quite well, plus things like the standard deviation of annual returns. But I have no idea if the OP has a properly backtested trading model.
It is more gray box, so back testing would have to be taken with a grain of salt. So It wouldn't qualify as well tested. I am depending on real trading results to determine if I am outperforming or wasting my time. That is why I am closely tracking my performance verses the index futures I trade. So far, it looks like I am beating buy and hold. Otherwise, I should be down this year instead of beating the markets.
Traded conservatively today without going over 1X leverage. I didn't have any read on where the market might head throughout the day, although I saw NQ gunning for 15000 towards the close. I just held my nose, and let the trades occur. Back in cash again. Another new high on account.
After the march runup, I am going to be cautious here and avoid going over 1X leverage. I would like to see a consolidation, as I thrive in that environment where market goes up and down but no big trends develop. NQ is just below its 200 day MA.
Well, I forgot to listen to my own advice and be cautious as the NQ was up against its 200 DMA. I took an 8K loss around the open, as I saw markets struggling to head higher. I should have just reversed my position, LOL. I did short a bit with ES mini and netted about $300. I started calculating % Profit as (profit in dollars / initial margin cost) * 100. Hopefully that is accurate. Also, reset my HWM going into April. I reentered a bit lower later in the day and now holding for a rebound next week.