Automated recognition of price trends (my software)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mglomba, Nov 16, 2011.

  1. mglomba

    mglomba

    Hi,

    I have been a passive reader of Elite Trader forums to date, but this time I feel I may have something worth contribution.

    I am a software engineer but also interested in practical data mining of financial time series (did MSc and dropped out of PhD in this subject). I have became tired of analyzing individual charts and reports looking for mid-term investment opportunities and last evening finally decided to create a simple service. I have had this idea in my mind for a while so after some time of coding I have built www.strongtrends.com

    The service automatically analyzes price trends of multiple financial instruments on daily basis, allowing you to discover strong and stable price movements that might become interesting investment opportunities. Trend stability metric is calculated for each financial instrument which is then classified as stable, crazy or chaos - a greater value means a stronger, more stable trend. Currently major currency pairs and commodity futures are supported.

    Hope you will find it useful too, for me the selection process is now just easier.

    Regards,
    Michal
     
  2. hey dude
    so where do you get your data from?
     
  3. mglomba

    mglomba

    The stability metric (range: 0.0-1.0) is calculated by myself, same with classification into "stable", "crazy" and "chaos" (these classes just came out from my observations). The "chart" link leads you to the actual chart, so you can easily verify whether the recognized trend is strong and fine enough for you to jump in.
     
  4. Our friend we appreciate your work and your effort. However, keep in mind that nobody (almost) can trade and profit from indicators like "stable", "crazy" and "chaos" generated from a black-box of some kind.

    Do you know that a lot of people make money from chaos?

    I think you should first study what makes up a usable trading system. Here is a summary (oversimplified):

    A trading system must include:

    1. Precise entry points
    2. Precise exit points or an exit method that is well-defined
    3. Specific risk and money management.

    Unless all of the three above, it is uselss for all practical purposes and any method that does not offer all three eventually causes ruin.

    Good luck. You got a long way to go. (This is good).
     
  5. no, i meant where do you get the data you use for your analysis?
     
  6. mglomba

    mglomba

    Hi intradaybill,

    Thanks for your comment, I think I have missed a few points from the original post what resulted in wrong impression:

    1. The fact this is my first post on this forum does not mean I'm new to trading but thanks for your and "your friends" warnings :)

    2. There is a vast difference between discretionary trading and algorithmic trading but you know that. A specific subtype of discretionary traders is interested in trend following investments and these are the people who I think might benefit from an instrument screening service of this kind.

    3. The people making money from "chaos" (you likely refer to HFT, right?) need to have a lot of money, technology and edge to do so. I do not think we have many of them on elitetrader, we should rather look at willmott.com (but please correct if I'm wrong).

    4. strongtrends is not an automated trending system. It's neither a portfolio selection tool. I would say it is just an entry instrument screening service for trend lovers, nothing else :). It is a really simple tool, this is why decided to make it public but everyone make his own luck.

    Best regards,
    Michal
     
  7. He's already stated it was "useful" for him.

    Whether its the same for those that he's now sharing the info with can only be decided by those using the info.