Haha, that's exactly right... Seriously though, I can't see how all this deficit spending is going to not be inflationary. There may be short term contraction in some asset classes (real estate, for example), but I believe prices will inflate on things that I care about. I simply don't believe that this liquidity injection can be withdrawn, as Bernanke and gang are suggesting. besides being poilitically untennable, I am not sure there'll be a lot of people buying treasuries when we (supposedly) turn the corner. Things I look at are items like healthcare, or Rolexes, or maybe even oil (I realize it just came down), which are all going to become more expensive in dollars. However, I also do not know where to put cash at the moment. I have a 10%/ year opportunity backed by real estate, but its' striking me as too risky. Maybe commodities + oom puts, but that's also dangerous if we're going to experience near term deflationary pressure.
Wow, you are falling for the fallacy that Taleb has pointed out... Given enough monkeys then you will have a monkey who happens to have gotten 5 events right and thus will seem to have predictive power. However, this is not the case since this monkey got the right answer due to the sheer amount of randomness. My point is that while Martin Armstrong is right, I would rather know how many things he got wrong, and when.
Yeah.... f^&k Taleb, do your own due diligence, nobody is going to do it for you, that's for sure. Armstrong was the head of the Princeton Economics Department... a monkey he is not. He predicted an international credit crisis for this decade ten+ years ahead of the event, that's a pretty good start. Now I'm looking to see if his prediction of ensuing hyperinflation comes true... and I'm shoring up my situation to be in a good position during and after if it happens, most are going to get run right over by it, sitting on fixed incomes or whatever, trusting Obama to take care of them I suppose...
Question . . . Why do you feel that it is not possible to withdraw the money that the FED has injected into the system? Ever heard of "matched-sales"?
What is the incentive to the banks in those deals, some high interest rate short term money? Possibly those deals could not soak up enough of the banks' reserves..
I will not deny that Armstrong might be intelligent and knowledgeable... But here is the thing, what if I make a prediction are you going to believe me? Probably not because I am some quack in the middle of nowhere. Then again quite a few of my predictions have been right on the money. That's why I blog! It keeps me honest! My point is that if this man has been making a prediction for the past 10 years then he is woefully off the mark. His "hyperinflation" call could be 20 years away! Predictions have to be timely because otherwise they are just "Chicken Little acts". BTW economists have been pretty off the mark for the past year... Simply put if we wait long enough everything happens!
On "authors" and "timely predicting hyperinflation". What about this one? # Hardcover: 264 pages # Publisher: Beaufort Books (April 1985)
Bernanke is a total shithead. his braindead theories help create this disaster and now his solution is more of the same. Does anyone really think he can create an even bigger leanding bubble to get this thing going again? there is no chance in hell. Its obvious that all the shitheads at the banks, the economists, and central bankers need to be stopped right now. If anything all were doing right now is probably making the situation worse.