Where the election will be won and lost Saturday’s election will be fight with three acts: Labor versus Coalition, Labor versus Greens and Coalition versus Teal.
How housing affordability policies could shift votes at the federal election By business reporter Nassim Khadem Fri 2 MayFriday 2 May Jason Cox has been buying properties, making improvements to them to increase their value, and then selling them for a profit. (ABC News: Russel Talbot) Jason Cox has become skilled at flipping property. Since 2001, the Queensland resident has been buying properties, making improvements to them to increase their value and then selling them for a profit. Flipping homes, Mr Cox says, is a five-year strategy. "You buy a property year one, and then you operate that property for five years, and then you can flip it out," he says. "Our method is to have around about five [investment] properties, and flip one out every year." House prices keep rising as investors flip properties with generous tax breaks (Nassim Khadem) Even as a serial property investor, Mr Cox is concerned about housing affordability and the implications for future generations. As Australians head to the ballot box on Saturday, the lack of affordable housing is front of mind for many. But the debate about how to constrain house prices remains a sore point because millions of Australians are home owners and many of them have built their wealth through property. "They [home owners] want governments to do things that keep house prices going up, and as both major political party leaders have said, they want house prices to keep going up," says veteran economist Saul Eslake. Saul Eslake says the major parties are "shedding crocodile tears" for first-time buyers because the reality is that many of their policies will keep house prices rising. (ABC News: Daniel Irvine) Home owners a far bigger voting base than first-time buyers Mr Eslake notes that there are 11 million home owners, and 2.25 million who own at least one investment property in Australia. Each year roughly more than 1 million of them are negatively geared. Negative gearing occurs when the cost of owning a rental property — such as interest payments, property charges and maintenance — outweighs the income it generates each year. This creates a taxable loss, which can normally be offset against other income, including a person's salary, to provide tax savings. New data shows national house prices trended higher in April, and are expected to keep rising as interest rates fall. Meanwhile, first home buyers are a much smaller voting group — Australia Bureau of Statistics lending data shows there are typically 110,000 people who succeed in becoming first home buyers each year. "Even if you allow that, for everyone who does [get into the market], there are five or six who don't, that is at most 750,000 votes for policies that would restrain the rate at which house prices keep going up," Mr Eslake notes. "So, on the one hand, 750,000 votes for policies that might restrain the rate of house price inflation, but somewhere north of 12 million for policies that would keep the rate of house price inflation going up. "Even the dumbest of our politicians can, as the Americans say, do that math. And they do it at every election." Mr Eslake says while the major parties are "shedding crocodile tears for the difficulties faced by those young aspiring home buyers", the reality is that many of their policies will keep house prices rising. Those who own homes worry their children will never afford one This election, the only mainstream party calling for reductions in housing tax breaks is the Greens. It wants to limit negative gearing and the CGT discount on property, which cost the federal budget tens of billions of dollars each year. Greens leader Adam Bandt whose party wants to limit negative gearing and phase out the CGT discount for property. The CGT exemption allows Australian residents that sell an asset (such as property or shares) to reduce their capital gain by 50 per cent if they owned the asset for at least 12 months. Under the Greens' policy, existing investors would be allowed to continue negatively gearing and receiving capital gains tax benefits for one investment property, but new investors would not be allowed to utilise the tax breaks. A moderate fall in home values may be just what Australia's economy needs in the long-term. The Greens say capital gains tax for non-housing assets would be discounted by inflation as was the case prior to the changes made by the Howard government in 1999. Queensland investor Mr Cox says he is a swinging voter and he won't vote for the Greens, as their policy would force him to have to sell his existing investments. He and his partner currently have three investment properties they rent out, all negatively geared. "I don't have a problem with them [political parties] abolishing the 50 per cent [CGT discount] or getting rid of negative gearing — but you can't go backwards. You can't leave investors like me and potentially millions of others in the lurch," Mr Cox says. Mr Cox says if there are future changes to property tax breaks, he and his partner will stop investing in property, and he fears others may do the same and that it could push rents up. But he also understands the dire need to address the lack of affordable housing. Jason Cox says if there are future changes to property tax breaks, he and his partner will stop investing in property and fears that could push up rents. (ABC News: Russel Talbot) "I've got a daughter, and I am concerned about rising house prices, so we need to do something," Mr Cox says. This generational concern is a sentiment shared by Brisbane home owner Laurent Heymann, who is also looking to invest in property. "I'm worried for our kids — we're at risk of a [property] bubble — where people just can't afford to live," Mr Heymann tells ABC News. "It saddens me. It feels like the country has changed, and not for the better, by making the poorer, poorer and [the] richer, richer." Laurent Heymann is disappointed that both Labor and the Coalition have steered away from making any changes to property tax breaks this election. (ABC News: Nickoles Coleman) Mr Heymann is disappointed that both Labor and the Coalition have refrained from announcing any changes to property tax breaks this election. He says that may steer him to vote for an independent. It's election season and politicians are trying to sell you the world. The team at Gruen isn't about to buy it. They're taking a big swing at the election, showing you how the democracy sausage is made, all the sizzle and none of the meat. He and his partner were able to pay off the family home mortgage due to an inheritance left to him when his father passed away. They now have about $400,000 left to invest in another property, and even though they would benefit from having housing tax breaks, he believes the cycle that's fuelling house price growth needs to stop. "I feel that the Australian public and the housing market would be much better served if the money that was used towards negative gearing would instead be used to build new homes," he said. just a 5 per cent deposit without having to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) Committing $10b to facilitate the construction of 100,000 new homes for first home buyers Extending "Help to Buy" scheme to allow homebuyers to co-buy property with government Speeding up housing construction and funding for apprentices Mirroring a Coalition policy to impose a two-year ban on the purchase of existing Australian homes by foreign investors COALITION Making the interest payments on the first $650,000 of a mortgage for a new home tax deductible for eligible first home buyers, limited to five years Easing lending standards by lowering the serviceability buffer Allowing first home buyers to withdraw $50,000 from their superannuation for a home deposit Allocating $5b for a fund to speed up essential infrastructure Giving businesses employing apprentices $12,000 a year for the first two years Scrapping $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund and cutting net migration levels by 100,000 places Two-year ban on the purchase of existing Australian homes by foreign investors GREENS A two-year rent freeze followed by capping rent increases at 2 per cent every two years Landlords required to renew all fixed term leases unless they have a good reason not to A national watchdog to fine landlords who breach these rules Grandfather negative gearing and the 50 per cent CGT discount to limit people to one investment property. The changes only apply to investment properties. Scrap the 50% capital gains tax discount for all other assets. The asset base for non-housing assets would be indexed by inflation. Will policies aimed at first-time buyers make housing affordability worse? Mr Eslake says changes to property tax breaks are "not a magic bullet", but that restricting negative gearing to investors who buy new dwellings and reducing the CGT discount would help boost the supply of new dwellings. He says current lending data shows in 2024 investors bought 154,600 established dwellings as opposed to 37,800 new dwellings. About a fortnight ago, Housing Minister Clare O'Neil and her Opposition Michael Sukkar pitched their parties' policies on housing at the National Press Club. Both stayed away from property tax breaks and instead spoke about policies that they argue will help increase housing supply, as well as measures to help first home buyers break into the property market. Mr Eslake argues major party policies aimed at helping first time buyers break into the market make the housing affordability problem worse. "They [some major party election policies] enhance the capacity of those who are able to take advantage of these [first-time buyer] schemes to borrow more than they otherwise would, so that they can spend more on housing than they otherwise would be able to do," Mr Eslake notes. Would prices fall and rents rise if tax breaks changed? The property industry has long argued that changing property tax breaks could drive down house prices and push up rents. Builders take out insurance designed to cover clients' costs in the event they go bust. But some people are waiting for years for a payout and facing potential bankruptcy. Mr Eslake says he's not advocating governments do things deliberately with the intention of forcing a big fall in house prices, "as that could get out of control". "But if house prices were to fall by, say, 5 to 10 per cent over a three-year period, that would do more to improve the chances of younger people becoming home owners than anything that any government has done in the last 60 years." The Grattan Institute, which also wants to see the CGT discount reduced from 50 per cent to 25 per cent and negative gearing wound back, found that under such a policy, property prices would fall by about 1 per cent. But the institute says it would boost the budget bottom line by about $11 billion a year. The Grattan Institute estimates changes to property tax breaks could boost the budget bottom line by about $11 billion a year. (ABC News: John Gunn.)
And now for the results... Australia’s center-left Labor Party retains power in vote seen as test of anti-Trump sentiment https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/03/aust...-results-albanese-dutton-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has secured a second term in office in what appears to be an election wipeout for his conservative rivals, as voters chose stability over change against a backdrop of global turmoil inflicted by US President Donald Trump. The Labor victory makes Albanese the first Australian Prime Minister to win re-election for two decades and he will start his second term with a much stronger mandate than he secured in 2022. A clearly emotional Albanese took the stage to cheers just before 10 p.m. local time to thank Australians for choosing a majority Labor government with at least 87 seats in the 150-seat lower house, according to the most recent estimates. “In this time of global uncertainty, Australians have chosen optimism and determination,” Albanese said, at the Labor victory party in Sydney. Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton, who had hoped to end the night as prime minister, lost the outer-suburban Brisbane seat that he’s held for more than 20 years, ending a brutal night for the veteran politician who held senior seats in the last Coalition government. In conceding defeat, Dutton said he accepted full responsibility for the election loss. “Our Liberal family is hurting across the country tonight,” Dutton said. “We’ve been defined by our opponents in this election, which is not the true story of who we are, but we’ll rebuild from here.” Australia’s return of a left-leaning government follows Canada’s similar sharp swing towards Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, another governing party whose fortunes were transformed by Trump. And the loss of Dutton’s seat mirrors that of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. While Australia wasn’t facing the same threats to its sovereignty as Canada, Trump’s global tariffs and policy swings have undermined Australians’ trust in the US, according to recent surveys. The candidates’ ability to deal with the US president had been a talking point of the campaign. Despite criticism that he had been unable to get Trump on the phone, Albanese said they had shared “warm” conversations in the past and he saw no reason not to trust him. Canberra remains a staunch ally of Washington, despite Trump’s tariffs threat. Dutton entered the five-week campaign on a strong footing. But analysts say his chances were badly damaged by policy misses and reversals, and weighed down by Trump’s wrecking-ball approach to the global order. By contrast, Albanese’s Labor Party was able to demonstrate a steady hand – striking an authoritative tone in response to Trump’s decision to impose 10% tariffs on Australia, which were later paused, analysts said. After Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement, Albanese called a press conference and, flanked by his foreign and trade ministers, said: “This is not the act of a friend.” In contrast, Dutton struggled to shake off comparisons to Trump by his opponents, not just because some policies appeared to have been inspired by the US leader. During the campaign, the senator he tapped to become shadow minister for government efficiency declared she wanted to “make Australia great again.” Jacinta Nampijinpa Price later said she didn’t realize she’d said it. Asked Saturday, if the Trump comparisons had hurt Dutton, Price said: “If you sling enough mud, it will stick.” Labor handed a strong mandate In the last three years, Albanese has been credited with improving relations with China, leading to the lifting of tariffs imposed during his predecessor’s term. His government has also repaired relations with Pacific Island nations, in part to prevent Beijing from filling a leadership vacuum. On foreign relations, he’s promised more of the same. Within Australia, Albanese’s government has been widely criticized for not being aggressive enough in efforts to tame rising living costs during a period of high global inflation. In the years ahead, he’s promised a tax cut, cheaper medicines, lower deposits for first-time buyers and 1.2 million houses to ease the housing crisis. Albanese first took office in the so-called “climate election” of 2022, with promises to cut Australia’s carbon emissions and reach net zero by 2050. Despite a rapid rollout of renewable projects – enough to power 10 million homes – his government has been criticized for also approving new coal and gas projects. On Saturday, Albanese reiterated his commitment to climate action in contrast to the rolling assault inflicted by the new US administration on environment agencies and research. All Australians know “renewable energy is an opportunity we must work together to seize for the future of our economy,” Albanese said to cheers. The Liberal Party’s loss means Dutton’s plan to build seven nuclear plants at public expense won’t move forward, a proposal critics said was a stalling tactic to extend Australia’s reliance on fossil fuels. “Today’s election result shows that Australians have comprehensively rejected the Coalition’s Trumpist agenda of climate and nature destruction, and its plan to force dangerous nuclear on communities,” said David Ritter, CEO of Greenpeace Australia Pacific. Dutton’s loss ends a long political career for the ex-police officer who held high-profile roles as minister for defense, immigration and home affairs in the former Coalition government. Dutton assumed the Liberal leadership after Morrison’s election loss in 2022 and brought with him a reputation as a strongman of the party’s right wing. During the 2025 election campaign, Dutton chided the prime minister for failing to secure exemptions from the US president’s global tariffs, and said he could have negotiated a better deal. As polls started to suggest voters were turned off by his Trump-style approach, Dutton seemed to try to put some distance between himself and the US leader. But in the final week of campaigning, he seemed to again tap into Trump rhetoric, referring to Australia’s national broadcaster and left-leaning newspaper The Guardian as “hate media.” In 2023, Dutton launched himself into contention as prime minister by successfully campaigning against the government’s referendum on the Voice proposal, which included constitutional recognition for Indigenous Australians. Dutton had called the Voice referendum divisive, because it proposed to give one group recognition over another. For the same reason, he said Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags would no longer be present at press conferences under his leadership – because all Australians should be united under one flag. Albanese took the opposing view. As he claimed victory, Albanese made a deliberate attempt to cast himself as a “kinder” leader, in contrast to the model offered by an administration he accused his rival of emulating. “Now that the Australian people have made their clear choice, let us reflect on what we have in common, because no matter who you voted for, no matter where you live, no matter how you worship, or who you love, or whether you belong to a culture that has known and cared for this great continent for 65,000 years, or you have chosen our nation as your home and enrich our society with your contribution, we are all Australians,” Albanese said.
Always unfortunate when good Minds lose their Seats, a blow for Australia. Albo does have s likeability about him though, these potential Lib leaders don't.
Not one hit wonders’: Teal roll-back fails to materialise The Coalition has failed to retake urban seats and faces losses to climate candidates in Bradfield and Forrest, while Labor is on the defensive in Bean Election rout sends Coalition backwards in Victoria The opposition’s hoped-for path to victory through the outer suburbs of Melbourne has failed to materialise. Instead, senior figures are expected to lose their seats. Albanese makes history, the Liberals have no soul to search This win is so emphatic, Labor is virtually guaranteed a third term. There is nothing anywhere for the Liberal Party to hold on to as encouraging, writes Phillip Coorey. Chandler-Mather gone as Qld delivers Labor surprise The ALP has recorded a major two-party swing against Max Chandler-Mather as the Albanese government appears to have made surprising and significant inroads in Queensland.
Total landslide. Australians vote to keep sky high housing and Albanese will now feel more confident the best way to govern Australia is continue to do nothing. Homeowners, landlords, the all powerful RE industry are very happy with Labor. Don't expect gummint to change the gouging housing stamp duty tax.
Politics is.... politics. Nothing will truly change. People are people. Some will win, some will lose. The only thing you can do is improve your own individual life, mind and circumstances Mickey of The
Sydneymorningherald Labor ‘ecstatic’ after pushing out Greens; Follow the count Follow our live coverage of the aftermath of Labor’s landslide victory at the federal election. The sheer drama of this victory cannot hide the trouble for the future David Crowe Opinion Federal This Sale Of The Century election will leave us all out of pocket Parnell Palme McGuinness Columnist and communications adviser