Discussion in 'Economics' started by m22au, May 21, 2010.
OZ Dollar the most overvalued currency
" The Australian dollar ... judged to be the world's most overvalued currency at the moment. Photo: HSBC "
Revisiting this thread following a much-discussed 60 Minutes piece on the Australian housing market:
60 Minutes piece (14 mins)
https://www dot youtube.com/watch?v=j_ktN_h7-J4
More articles discussing the 60 Minutes piece:
(includes charts from report written by Jonathan Tepper)
AFR piece includes some commentary from John Hempton, who was doing the research with Tepper
RP Data provides monthly home price index data:
The most important ones to watch are Sydney and Melbourne, the two biggest cities, and the two cities that have significantly outperformed other Australian cities in the last 2 to 3 years.
You declared a bubble almost 6 years ago. So let's look at the results. What have housing prices done since your original post ? The danger in declaring housing bubbles are two fold : one, there might be justified demand to live in certain locations, and, two, it is usually wrong to declare an entire country a housing market.
For example, there have been a lot of American yahoos declaring a housing bubble in Canada for years. Only one problem with that, there is no such thing as a Canadian housing market. It's a fallacy to discuss the topic that way to begin with.
You stated that "it is usually wrong to declare an entire country a housing market", and then used Canada as an example, without stating why it is an example of your assertion.
Can you explain why you believe your assertion to be true?
Sydney and Melbourne are recipients of govt stimulus in shape of low quality loans. Prices move around 3-4 pc p/a for unimproved dwellings over decades. this bubble thing is there to massage consumer sentiment so spending generates growth.
unlucky house owners will pay very large bill when dwelling needs structural fixing as quality of build is joke and cost of handyman also joke on high side.
Lucky owners will sell before structural issues come out.
Total $ gained of all owners/speculators is negative over time.
Well informed get rich on expense of less informed.
Same as in any other place where there is not enough for everyone.
that's all there is to this topic in 2 au cities that have 1/2 of AUS population and no industry.
Recent data suggests that property in Sydney and Melbourne is still doing well:
Sydney +2.6% in February, +18.4% year-on-year
Melbourne +1.5% in February, +13.1% year-on-year
+18% yoy is clearly not sustainable IMO. Something will break (and most likely soon).
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