•Unemployment 'Officially' Exceeds 10% in 1/4th of U.S. States, Threatening Recovery

-"...and eight states - - including California, Florida and Georgia -- reached their highest level of joblessness since records began in 1976, the Labor Department reported today in Washington."

I predicted two months ago that national unemployment would top out north of 12%, with many states seeing 15% to 18% unemployment at peak (Michigan, home of the UAW auto worker, where I live, is already 14.1% - and I've said this will radiate out and eventually effect quite a few states south and west).

We all know BLS has changed their methodology for computing the official unemployment rate, and that it's wildly conservative, not counting those who are underemployed (but willing to consider themselves at least partially unemployed), or those who have quit looking for employment. Not only that, but it's based on household survey plus unemployment insurance data (I think, but am not positive), so it's not even capturing everyone out there as a total population group.

Anyways, it's rising faster than I think most anticipated it would a year ago.

Is it fair for us to assume the real unemployment rate is closer to 14%?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a51ogfRjKRuc

Unemployment Surpassing 10% Spreads, Risking U.S. Recovery
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By Shobhana Chandra

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- More than one-quarter of American states now have unemployment rates higher than 10 percent, and all but two saw a further deterioration in their job markets in May.

Tennessee and Illinois joined the rank of states, now 13, that have jobless rates exceeding 10 percent, and eight states - - including California, Florida and Georgia -- reached their highest level of joblessness since records began in 1976, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.

The figures make it likely President Barack Obama was correct in forecasting this week the national unemployment rate will reach 10 percent, a level unseen in a quarter century, this year. With no region escaping the rout, consumers across the nation will probably curtail their spending, preventing any boom out of the deepest recession in half a century, analysts said.

“It’s tough everywhere,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Nobody’s really been spared.” The biggest increases in unemployment will be in states most dependent on manufacturing, construction and financial services, he said.

For the country, “unless hiring magically picks up, a 10 percent unemployment rate is pretty much baked in,” Vitner said.

Michigan again reported the highest jobless rate in the nation, at 14.1 percent in May.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 19, 2009 11:21 EDT

 

Graph is too damn big. Click the link instead.


http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/unemployment-rate-by-state.html

 

I KNEW there had to be a reason you were so bearish! Anybody in there right mind from Michigan would be just as bearish! Explains all the articles from the Detroit Post as well. It all makes sense now.

 

I travel to 3 states on a regular basis: Nevada, Florida and Arizona.

I see two other at least 2x a year: Washington State and Georgia.

It's bad all over.

Florida is worse than Michigan, actually, from what I've seen down there, firsthand.

Arizona is reeling.

Microsoft and Boeing are both dragging on Washington State.

Of course Michigan is getting slammed. Just don't be surprised many other states closer than they may appear in the side view mirror very soon, if not already, in actuality.

 

Thanks for that chart.

It's fugly. What's up with Oregon? Did they have a concentrated industry that got slammed?

I wonder what it will look like in 12 months.

 

Those are three of the hardest hit states, especially for RE. I'm assuming you know people (maybe many people) who have lost their jobs and/or houses because of where you live. I no longer blame you for being bearish as this would emphasize the negatives for anybody.

I was in your neck of the woods about a month ago. Travelling down the I-75 to Gaylord. We were absolutely astonished at the amount of roadkill that hadn't been picked up. Do you think that could be due to cutbacks? Or maybe just coincidence that we happened to notice? Or is there always a large amount of dead racoons and deer laying at the side of your highways?

The golf resorts in Gaylord sure didn't like they were getting hit too hard. Great condition!