August

Discussion in 'Trading' started by efficiency, Jul 30, 2011.

  1. Since 1928 the SPX has been up 61% of the time in August with an average gain of 0.7%. During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 70% of the time with an average gain of 0.9%. The best ever August for the SPX was 1932 (+37.3%) the worst 1998 (-13.9%).

    Since 1979 the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 63% of the time in August with an average gain of 0.5%. During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 75% of the time with an average gain of 2.3%. The best ever August for the R2K, 1984 (+9.9%), the worst 1998 (-18.2%)

    My own computation suggests the SPY proxy needs to break above $134.36 to be trending. I'll settle for $131.15 on Monday to have a long bias.

    The most likely catalyst would be a resolution to the debt ceiling. Both Transports and Biotechs groups rallied sharply off their Friday intra-day lows. Tech didn't