All major gold shares indexes continue to exhibit significant strength. It would appear from my personal and previous observations that this divergence will lead to something big in the coming days/weeks/months. The XAU/HUI now seems to be pricing in a move to 680-690 on the cash gold price as of today. I remain long August Gold and September Silver...
USDX looking real vulnerable right now to a break under .8015 so we could be on the verge of a major move in the metals real soon. Started shifting out of gold longs tonight and moving them over to Silver. The technical strength and upside potential appears to be much more favorable for the sister metal at the moment. During the past few gold pit sessions, there does appear to be determined selling which is holding back prices a bit imo...
Something seems very wrong now. The USDX continues to break down while gold/silver fail to respond accordingly. This would likely mean that intervention will occur at the .8000 area in order to protect the USDX. Otherwise gold/silver should be flying off the walls by now...
The action in the metals the past couple of sessions resembles what occured in early May. While the USDX was making lower lows and the metals refused to respond to the upside, the USDX essentially bottoming out and therefore the sellers arrived in gold/silver. It does appear that we are experiencing a similar situation now imo as the USDX has been very weak but the response from gold is completely lackluster. I am considering going short GCQ7 again if is begins to trade under 660. I am already out of all longs as of today...
Finally got the breakout. Took some time but things are definitely looking better now. The key now is for cash gold to hold 665 and silver 13 flat. At this point, most of the technical traders will look to enter at these levels if there is any pullback in the coming hours/days...
Closing the week with cash gold over 666.50 and Silver over 13 is good news moving forward. Still like Silver much better than gold at this juncture though.
You are one full on trading-type character. Your take on the standard seasonal gold fut's run up into december?( a little while away yet, but how often has it failed) The silver (futs) play far outperformed gold (futs) just a year or so ago, what say you?
2nd half metals action could very good running all the way through the 1st Qtr. of '08. I do expect Silver to outperform gold however by a much wider margin. The price swings on Silver over Gold can be more volatile so be careful out there is all I can say...
Both gold and silver now appear highly susceptible to some near term profit taking by small spec longs and large traders. Resistance at 670 cash gold and 13.15 cash silver have so far proved difficult to conquer. Unless the USDX cash breaks decisively below 80.50, it will be very difficult for the precious metals to mount any further strength. I'm keeping my eye on a pullback in gold to at least 655 and on Silver down to 12.75 this week. We could find some fund buyers in those support regions however a break below could spell trouble for gold/silver in the near-term. The gold share indexes also appear to finally pulling back on the back of another failure for gold and silver to follow through. Watch the XAU/HUI for further clues in cash market metal action...
The action in gold looks prone to another selloff. Notice how much congestion occurs in gold during this latest intermediate downleg right around the 40/50EMA. Once the price action leads to lower highs and lower lows, a selloff resumes shortly thereafter. Given thefact that the USDX continues to weaken and the metals still refuse to respond, we could be at a crossroad here any moment now. Any trades under 663 basis GCQ could signal further price erosion IMO.