According to my data the S&P 500 Futures will see the other side of 1400 before long. I have two piece of compelling but almost unbelievable data. Open Long Gaps for the $TRIN at 15.45 14.48 Meaning the Trin will return to 15.45! If it doesn't reach it before 1392.00 we could go even lower. Gaps in Data Every 1/4 point in the S&P 500 should have corresponding data from other indices. The label to these indices is unimportant. But as you can see below there are lots of gaps. That last at 1392.00 Meaning the S&P will return to 1392.00. 1400.00 1.32 20.08 11.87 20.34 5.79 1399.75 1.42 20.09 11.45 19.89 5.49 1398.50 1.40 19.85 11.63 19.65 5.61 1398.25 1.45 20.77 11.69 19.99 5.61 1398.00 1.45 20.64 11.76 20.02 5.80 1397.75 1.49 20.82 11.48 19.77 5.49 1397.50 1.48 20.71 11.28 20.01 5.59 1397.00 1.46 20.39 11.90 19.15 6.07 1396.75 1.44 20.28 11.74 19.87 5.91 1396.50 1.52 20.35 11.58 19.95 5.76 1396.25 1.61 20.88 11.58 20.72 6.74 1396.00 1.47 20.39 11.79 20.19 5.99 1395.75 1.70 20.97 11.70 19.40 6.47 1395.50 1.49 20.39 11.84 20.37 6.34 1395.00 1.91 21.07 11.66 20.24 5.95 1394.25 2.04 21.19 11.72 20.15 6.53 1394.00 1.74 20.74 11.26 18.45 5.16 1393.50 2.10 21.20 11.49 19.83 6.31 1393.25 2.09 21.19 11.88 19.89 6.22 1392.75 2.26 21.25 11.86 20.35 6.22 1392.25 2.32 21.22 11.66 19.85 5.54 1391.75 2.14 21.06 11.09 20.01 5.87 What other support levels are below 1392.00?
Eventually there will be a spike on the TRIN like it was on 2/27/2008 I shutter at the prospects, but that is what the data is telling us. And if the axiom is true and as yet it has never failed, the trin gap will be filled. In order to do that the Trin has to return to at LEAST 15:45. That the trin can get this high is proven from history. The last time the Trin was even close to this high was on 6/21/02. The only problem with that date, is that this occurred in the morning when the trin calculation is sometimes inaccurate during the first few minutes of the day. But on 3/10/03 the Trin closed with a gap at approx 5.81. That gap was not filled until, you guessed it, 2/27/07. It took 4 years to fill the gap. But the gap WAS filled. The ES on that date closed at about 900! When this 15.45 gap will be filled is impossible to tell. But more compelling is that the gap data on the spoos shows 1392.00 will be revisited. On 6/13/06 the Vix closed with a gap at 23.81. That gap was just filled on 7/27/07. Gaps are ALWAYS filled! On that date the ES closed at about 1284. Does that mean that gap data has no predictive value? Not at all. Number one is that you must know where the gaps are and number two you need a method for calculating whether the gap has a good chance of being filled within the very near future.
Eventually there will be a spike on the TRIN like it was on 2/27/2008 I shutter at the prospects, but that is what the data is telling us. And if the axiom is true and as yet it has never failed, the trin gap will be filled. In order to do that the Trin has to return to at LEAST 15:45. That the trin can get this high is proven from history. The last time the Trin was even close to this high was on 6/21/02. The only problem with that date, is that this occurred in the morning when the trin calculation is sometimes inaccurate during the first few minutes of the day. But on 3/10/03 the Trin closed with a gap at approx 5.81. That gap was not filled until, you guessed it, 2/27/07. It took 4 years to fill the gap. But the gap WAS filled. The ES on that date closed at about 900! When this 15.45 gap will be filled is impossible to tell. But more compelling is that the gap data on the spoos shows 1392.00 will be revisited. On 6/13/06 the Vix closed with a gap at 23.81. That gap was just filled on 7/27/07. Gaps are ALWAYS filled! On that date the ES closed at about 1284. Does that mean that gap data has no predictive value? Not at all. Number one is that you must know where the gaps are and number two you need a method for calculating whether the gap has a good chance of being filled within the very near future.
Yes the trin fills ALL gaps. Any gap created where in a current one minute bar does not intersect the close of the immediately preceding bar will create a gap. I have been tracking gaps for years. I have NEVER seen a gap unfilled. It consequently has predictive value. Open Long Gaps for $TRIN 2.51 Open Long Gaps for $VIX.X Open Long Gaps for $SPINX Open Long Gaps for $NQIQX 11.73 Open Long Gaps for $ER2IUX Open Long Gaps for $TICK -673.00 As of today there is a gap on the trin a 2.51. I guarantee you this will be filled, likely very soon.
As a gappin' kind o' guy myself, I don't think this statement is correct unless one wishes to set absolutely no time limit on the probability that a gap (stock, bond, index, indicator, etc.) will ever fill. If that is what you are doing, I can't disagree with you. A LEAPS play might be fun. lj
I did not mean to suggest gaps on all data are filled. The only data I am concerned with is the data we track which constitutes leading indicators. And while granted we do not put any time limit for gaps to be filled the fact that they are filled is extremely useful when you are trading the s&p futures.
so according to you, an 8.5% drop in 1 month is a crash??? sounds like you don't know what a crash really is.