Unless I'm a retard, this looks pretty bearish no? COF : 104 Placed: 110 Marketed: 106 herd up 4.6% from 2005 U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on July 1, 2006. The inventory was 5 percent above July 1, 2005 and 7 percent above July 1, 2004. This is the second highest July 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.09 million steers and steer calves, up 4 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 65 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.71 million head, up 5 percent from 2005. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.95 million, 10 percent above 2005 and 18 percent above 2004. This is the second highest placements for the month of June since the series began in 1996. Net placements were 1.89 million. During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 565,000, 600-699 pounds were 430,000, 700-799 pounds were 456,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 500,000. Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 2.20 million, 6 percent above 2005 and up 6 percent from 2004. This is the second highest fed cattle marketings for the month of June since the series began in 1996. Other disappearance totaled 63,000 during June, unchanged from 2005 but 10 percent below 2004.
mucho beef in feedlots means mucho price decline no? anyway , i bought the 86/82 put spread on dec cattle. figured i better spread my strikes more. i bought yesterday into that bullcrud rally when i saw midday choice prices down, yet again. choice/select has been getting crushed lately oh, and i still detest the pit, bid /offer spreads are terrible. The only way of making money in an option spread, I guess is to hold til maturity . very disappointed on the corn. bought more 250/290 and 260/300 call spreads yesterday. technically still seems we have more room on downside but i want to be long. i keep reading comments that crops are lighting up and are very dry www.agweb.com oh, and bot jul 07 / sld dec 07 corn at -12.25 , that widened out to -14 today. keeping some powder dry... let me know if you see the cash trade please. in cattle that is.
These are two outstanding reasons whey I stay away from the fundamentals in the Ag Markets. Aug. Feeder Cattle are in a Bull Trend and are coming from a Divergent Higher Low in that Trend. Either currently or soon it will confirm that bottom and make a go at 117.925 and the 119 and change . . . period. If it confirms a top before it reaches those levels . . . THEN it will come down and not before then . . . period. Crops are another story. You "heard" corn is "very dry". Well let me tell you in Iowa, Indiana and Ohio the corn in the field is HUGE and as beautiful as a Kincaid oil painting. My neighbor has 85% of his 3000 acres planted in corn, my uncle and his sons have 75% of his 6500 acres planted in corn and so goes the entire area. Oklahoma and Texas are dry but they are always dry. Once they suck all the water from their aquifers they will be importing ALL their grain. The only consistent "read" on the Ag Markets comes from the technicals, if you know what you are looking for, because they don't Think, Feel, Hope, Wonder, Wish, Assume, Guess, Anticipate, Predict, Envision, Imagine, Project, Sense or Surmise where prices are going . . . they KNOW!