Aug Feeder Cattle.

A sequential alone is enough for me to tighten up stops or lock in gains.

I was bullish on decs corn in the low 250's and booked profits in the upper 270's. I think the 280 zone represents a fundamental price zone that will be good resistance unless crop conditions worsen significantly, having a sequential didn't hurt either in locking in those gains.

 

Where are you getting the price zone information?

 

i closed my feeder put spread today ; not because i don't believe in the trade but because in retrospect i structured the strikes poorly. long 114 short 112 gives a net delta that is ridiculously small ; not even large enough to get any movement to cover the bid/offer spread when putting the trade on. Out at 75 pts today .

Given I think we are setting up a sequential and a possible retest of the high , I will look to reshort, maybe an outright put, or a future, though not too keen on doing the future outright. Still negative bias.

Short Feeders Long Live could be still viable; but I'm reticent to do it with the futures on some "fluke" day where you get too divergent price movement in both. Any idea of how to structure this trade conceptually using options?

Last I heard cash was 80-84 ; any cash trade you guys hear please do let me know.

 

83.50 tops in Texas. Mostly 83.

 

Whoops. What I meant to say was 81.5 and a whole lot of 81.

 

This is a regressed price zone based upon the stocks to usage ratio.

 

Structuring a FC/LC spread with options is messy if you ask me and I much prefer the futures. Remember it is a ratio trade to get reduced margin, 2:3.

As long as feeders are overvalued, and they are, then I want to look to short this spread on rallies.

 

81, 81.5 cash trade??? looks like an ugly monday then?

 

here is a very cool breakeven link. could the commercial cash members please explain how to fill in each field variable? less familiar with some of them...

http://www.imiglobal.com/breakeven/feedyard.htm

 

here is what I use I find it much easier, it is from Ann Barnhardt.

The bpcog is break profit cost of gain, I use .55 or .65 to cover all costs of one pound of gain. Just input your prices and the return per head comes out below.

Ok, it didn't attach. I will try this again.

I just uploaded to my website so you can download yourself.

http://www.researchlabtrading.com/public/images//cattle sell buy square.xls