Sell setup is still valid and my bias is still negative. If we trade above the pivot high of last week I will revisit the idea. Trading is never about absolutes but probabilities.
my view is that this is a corrective wave in what i still view a topping formation. we takeout the previous high and i think the bias then changes. looking at lean hogs here. 10 pts difference between august and october.... yikes. how bout a spread on that ?
Much of my trading is in finding patterns that are bottom, bounce, decline, bottom. I find this to be a common and high probability pattern when combined with my other analysis. In the same idea I think we may have a top, decline, rally, then a top. That would fit with this market and a rather common pattern.
just checking, the losses are huge when figuring cattle coming into a feedyard now. Surely it can't go on forever.
also thinking of buying a dec 90 put and selling a dec 88 put (live cattle) for 40 pts. being told unable on my order today and figuring out what the color is. me thinks topping as well.
August Feeder Cattle: Still in a Bull Trend. Price will still continue to go up until it fails . . . and it hasn't failed yet. Next target, 117.600, last extreme trading top confirmation. Then, 117.925, last extreme trading top. Then, 119.750, last trend top. Price movement is sooo cool.
I agree that technically the trend is still bullish but the market structure is not with prices more likely to move sharply lower than higher, imho. For me the risk of being long is greater than that of going short, at least in my style of trading. To each his own.
I absolutely agree . . . to each their own and I hate to lose. Still Long since 05/05 and staying that way till this thing fails.