AUDUSD .... BV way

Discussion in 'Forex' started by brisvegas, Jul 29, 2011.

  1. Just a quick introduction , im an Australian trader based in Brisbane . my primary source of income is derived from trading , i trade a small universe . DAX AUDUSD EURUSD DOW and the ASX200 (XJO) and im starting to look at HSI . i find the audusd one of the most structured charts i follow and for me its the easiest money i generally make , im not a scalper generally and i look for moves in the 100's of points , i do try and take most of the range and look to reload on retraces whilst still holding a core position . Patience is a big part of what i do and i enjoy the wait for when i enter i like to have my risk defined and a value entry ( doesnt always work out). i look at a few time frames but never anything under 60m and nothing over daily . my strategy involves defining trends and places of interest where trends may become under threat . i try not to countertrend too much and like to take bits out of the primary trend looking to reload on retraces . in the main i use naked charts with no indicators but on the odd occasion i use a fairly odd set of mas to help with retrace entry and to maintain trend definition . i use a lot of range repetition looking for where trends will be under threat and for defining the waves within primary trends for my bites of primary trend strategy . i dont feel the need to trade everyday and will only enter when i consider it high probability , if im not sure ill do nothing and wait for a range completion or another critical point on my charts . my only reason for trading is to make money . being a higher time frame trader im likely to not post a lot of charts , also being time poor doesnt help but i will try and post charts in a way that exhibits some sense of continuity . my first chart here is a weekly but only as my chartware will not produce 10 years in daily . the predominant range repetition here is 40cents , that certainly can be broken down on smaller time frame and i will demonsrate the dominant ranges on daily in time
  2. zoomed into daily we see the dominant ranges in last couple years , note the larger range is twice the smaller , as we zoom in further towards hourly charts we will see a definate relationship between ranges

    ranges up and down have neat realtionships as well depending on primary trend . the ranges ive presented so far are all up moves , the relation ship between up and down ranges presents some possibilities for defining trends and strength of trends
  3. on this 60m we can see the ranges in action once again . pretty basic stuff with a definate structure attached . the dotted lin on top is from the first chart and is of major importance to me . without looking at the higher TF this lines potential would not be seen . a line of high vibration that by the laws of mulitiple time frames is the dominant point on my chart . the ranges and relationships between up/down size has a defining impact on trend bias and is a big part of my strategy . i do use trendlines and parellel channels a lot in my analysis and range repition is a big part of my waves within trends scenarios ab = cd sort of thing


    1. Every time frame has its own structure.

    2. The higher time frames overrule the lower time frames.

    3. Prices in the lower time frame structure tend to respect the energy points of the higher time frame structure.

    4. The energy points of support/resistance created by the higher time frame's vibration (prices) can be validated by the action of lower time periods.

    5. The trend created by the next time period enables us to define the tradable trend.

    6. What appears to be chaos in one time period can be order in another time period
  4. forgot to put the dominate range in from daily , this chart gives a clearer picture of where im going here
  5. now here is the final structure that im trading , i have taken a short position (actually a reload) at the 1.103 . i have already taken a bite late last week of the first 2 swings but only got about 65% of that range . i still have a core position from initial trade that i hope to hold for many hundreds of pips . this trade is a setup that only comes around rarely . i will add to the charts to explain the pattern ive identified here , a lot of traders i know saw this new mutliyear high on aud as a breakout but ive noticed the pattern of previous high tests involves a running of stops and have played this one as another of these patterns . this type of price action flushes many of the longer time frame shorts and sees a buyer exhaustion . i gave this a couple days to get below the breakout level and that has occured .
  6. previous new highs have had a couple retests before breakout , i will do some range analysis to determine likely downside tgts and in the likelyhood of an upside breakout the range analysis is repeated to the upside . i do have certain criteria for a breakout to meet before i can call one
  7. ok your charts look similar yet different then mine. im guessing the squares are what is referred to as fractals. Often they can be elongated flattened or skewed. for this reason i do not include them in my strategy.

    though there is some method to their madness if one pulls out the old protractor.

    from your charts i feel im on the right path some what.

    maybe you can help me in another field?

    im wondering what avenue one should take to take advantage of this knowledge. So far i have been using well with stocks. (well a stock) now im some what confident to invest. leverage or options will be needed so im looking at a prop firm as learning about options seems to be a whole other ball game. my paper trading account has done well but i gotta get my feet wet to see how much reality will effect outcome. would working remotely through a prop firm be the way to go. Or is there any way i can gauge my paper trading success with others?

    I have done all my research with netflix and a bit with gold
  8. dont know about fractals t786 , they are just ranges or measured moves , whatever you want to call them

    As far as stocks go , i used to trade them but have all but given them up these days . but i will say when i did i treated them all differently using different templates to trade each according to the underlying stocks DNA . by that i mean different volatility , possibly different cycles etc etc . the unpredictability of when a broker dgrade or earnings dgrade happened turned me of stocks and i prefer the better geometry/structure of fx and indice now

    Options are a hole different kettle of fish and would suggest you need to get your stock analysis right before trying to profit from them although options do have the benefit of defined risk and leverage . the greeks etc is something you need to get a handle on . I am looking at using options myself but not for the leverage , just purely for the limited risk and maybe the odd insurance at times

    as far as prop trading goes its something ive never done or looked at

    many people can run profitable demo accounts and then fail when hard cash is on the line . i try and look at it as pips or points and let the equity take care of itself . a lot of people ive seen trade demos dont protect their stack with enough vigour as its not viewed as real money . but blowing up demos in real life equals margin calls . never ever get a margin call . trade within your economic constraints and build your account with patience and discipline , big account takes a long time

    dont try and trade too many things at once , i stick to a small universe and i know it well

    hope some of this helps although its a little of topic from what im trying to do here

    now i can mention what i actually came here to do . we have chinese PMI on monday and RBA interest rate decision on tuesday as the market moving releases on this cross

  9. thanks for the info. I also use the word DNA do identity the the moves that make up the big moves and often reflect the big moves. I use the term DNA not only because it is something that is deeply en grained in price. but also often has a effect on the bigger picture. Its nice to see that others have seen this.

    as for Forex trading, I'm wondering if it also has a DNA and if the same Technics i imagine you use can be used.

    Will changing be an easy transition, i think my strategy should work in nay market. but in strong markets it is more consistent. in stocks like rim and lu there is often an underlying problem of stocks having more and more resistance as they near 0. most my important trend lines face downwards on these stocks so there in naturally a failure to follow the gravitational force below 0.

    Im not sure if you have any idea what speak of, but in the odd chance that you do would you suggest i change to forex ?
  10. little down the track and we have a lower swing high (just) that really is a resistance retest (DT) , volatility abounds for obvious reasons . taken another bite out of the range and still holding core . need a lower swing low now .
    #10     Aug 1, 2011