Discussion in 'Forex' started by BigFunky, Mar 6, 2006.

  1. I note that this particular pair is not widely discussed, but its movement makes a lot more sense to me than the EUR/USD!

    I just noticed on one of the main trading threads that the recent drop in the NZD/USD may have gone too far and is due for a correction. I am of the opposite opinion and for now at least think that the NZD movement as more of a lightweight is predictive of a drop in AUD/USD. The correlation between AUD and NZD seems rock solid, and in this case is merely a question of who leads who.

    I personally have gone short on AUD/USD at 0.7452.

    (I should note that I live in New Zealand and so my sources of information are biased on discussing NZD and AUD trends. Perhaps that is the same reason I find the USD/CAD situation so confusing.)
  2. I agree with you. I have just gone short at 0.741 It looks like a double top at 0.7484 to me, with the next target 0.736 the next target. The fall in commodities supporrs the bearish view.
  3. I, too, have shorted the AUD. But where's the best place to get information on Aussie news, commodoties, etc? I am still new to currencies.
  4. Wouldn't Monday be a better time to take a position? You do not have a long trade here in my opinion, it is ready to turn around next
  5. It does seem a bit of a gamble to short at this level. The last time it was this low, in Dec/Jan, it bounced back up ~300 pips in about a week.

    If its going down from here, it'll go down at least 100 pips, so you'll have plenty of time to get confirmation.
  6. I have gone short here at .7290 looking for sub .72's, stop .7340

    My reasoning being:

    1. Carry trade is unwinding on NZ and AUD
    2. Demand for Eurozone currencies
    3. Yield contraction against USD and Eur
    4. A faller even against borad dollar weakness.
    5. Break of .7308 (14 week low)
  7. Why now...wait till Sunday evening? (mst)

  8. I think these pairs will do this

    EURUSD 1.2242 1.2115
    GBPUSD 1.7642 1.7465
    USDJPY 116.9906 115.5874
  9. Closed short .718 for 110pips profit.
  10. Good job!

    What now for AUD/USD?

    #10     Mar 23, 2006