AUD trading oppty

Discussion in 'Forex' started by tracer619, Jul 31, 2012.

  1. AUD/USD short here

    looking for big downside. short term long term trade


  2. Just got out of my short... good luck! :D
  3. contra


    nice, stop?
  4. I've been short for like the last month, all because I heard some guy on Bloomberg and CNBC make a convincing argument why AUD must go down against USD.

    As amatter of fact, my whole position is always based on short AUD/USD.

    Oh, there were some bright fleeting moments, and many other posters here on ET gave me encouragement and congratualtions on the big down red days.

    But for the most part it has been nothing but one big loss.

    And I just got short again today 1.0508

    but I thought I had a good fill when I sold at 1.0211

    the only thing that kept me alive was, whenever I shorted AUD, I also went long CAD. And I am long CAD at 1.0036, and I just keep working that spread.

    Sell more AUD/USD when it moves against me
    And sell more USD/CAD when I can get a better price on the spread than I got when I first entered
  5. contra


    well hopefully you work you way out of this.

    I don't like being short, and after that burst of more QE hope and action from Europe and ECB, I targeted 0500 on aussie (barrier targets, nice round number there. I took profit a bit before 0500 though last weeks close.

    I don't like being short aussie (for the IRD)... it costs funds to hold that, the only time i like to get short is when i expect some profit taking or on heavy risk off events, as it tends to unwind nicely, but it's not something i would want to hold short longer term, unless I get some fundamental reason behind it.

    AUD outperformed in Q1 above the rest and they were cut rates. Something didn't make sense there, maybe they made a solid move. Then, after that last 25bps cut, aussie started rallying... and popped hard again at the next meeting when they held and gave a not so negative outlook, hasn't looked back since then really lol.

    I thought s&p could use a pullback and just took a punt.

    Today is month end also. Better to stay flat into these risk events coming up here.

    I see 0550 in the crosshairs. Decent china data could do that. If i short aussie again I will look for confirmation.

    probably range/consolidation trade until the main events.
  6. it's already showing me a small quick profit, but you got that right, even if it moves in your favor that short AUD/USD is expensive to hold, and I hold overnight

    I have a limit in to sell some more at 608, I kind of work in 100 pip increments, and that has been consistently profitable for me

    one of these days it will get me

    I got tired of getting stopped out and taking hunderds of small losses, and decided I would rather take one big loss. It comes out about the same. And my big loss has always been in short AUD/USD.
  7. contra


    lol good luck man. I think we see a pullback, I would not get long here unless we see some serious action from Draghi and hints of QE from the beard.

    My advice would be to lighten the load to where you can keep your stop out of that target area above though.
  8. I never use stops, unless I have added to a winner, and then I just put it at BE, no questions asked.

    Has nothing to do with the market

    Just keeps me from being demoralized seeing a winner turn into a loss
  9. contra


    are you dealing with longer term positions?

    It's ok to take measured risks and losses. Nothing to be ashamed of there... it's one of the only things we can control. Maybe you have a system of working out of losses or something not sure.
  10. yes, average hold is about 8 days, many times if things stall I take the other side for a few days, or even a few hours, sometimes only minutes.

    The price I pay for that luxury is trading small

    I am very rarely more than 50% margin committed
    #10     Jul 31, 2012