Discussion in 'Forex' started by J-Law, Feb 9, 2012.

  1. J-Law


    Anyone trading Aussie Kiwi? Watching it now roughly 1030P EST. 2/9.
    Seems to be hugging the 1.2900 level on weakness.
    The price action suggests that someone is defending this level maybe for an option expiration.
    Wondering if the pair will hold this value level post RBA announcement leaving rates untouched.

  2. Be long....

    Price will go higher to at least 1.3024 this month.

    High Probably starting next week.

    Today on friday, will not much happen i think.

    Wait for next week.

    Good luck....

    :) :) :)
  3. J-Law


    although anything is possible, I don't see it.
    A few guys are on the web calling for the same.
    The long term chart time frames are saying down & it looks to be reclaiming the IR announcement price spike.

    I guess see what happens.
  4. My long term analysis says "long".

    But it didnt confirmated the starting signal,
    if yes then next week, or in worst case over next week....

    but probably next week.

    But, you know, anything can happen.

    As long the weekly chart does not confirm to start to go up, i would not want to be long here, also not short, because this is like doing suicide.

    Market is here on a support level and traders will decide next week what to do..........

    But i would rather be long here than short........

    My advice: wait for next week what the weekly bar does and see, if it fits into the big picture, then enter with the daily charts.....

    Good luck
    :cool: :cool: :cool:

    My odds, for now:
    long 70%
    Short 30%
  5. J-Law


    AUD.NZD is a relative value play & less of a directional trade.
    Both are strong markets. But, doesn't mean that a short AUD.NZD trade won't work.
    Aussie is down hard today, but more importantly NZD is down less or stronger.

    The same can be said about the ES & NQ contracts. Both are rippin' to the upside.
    But, the trade was to be short the ES/NQ spread, again a relative value trade.
    Both mkts are inching higher, but the short spread is performing nicely. As the NQ is outperforming the ES.

    But, ur right anything can & will happen :)

    Hey, spot FX question. As of this writing,
    AUD is @ 1.06785 down 108 pips
    NZD is @ .8205 down 60 pips

    Yet the AUD.NZD pair is
    @ 1.2896 off 36 pips & why not the combined 48 pips ?
    The arbs/high freq traders can't be missing that one.

    Any idea?
  6. I have done some AUDNZD in the past. Made a bit of money being short from 1.37, but covered much too early. According to a small model I run, I don't see anything too exciting about it. It's slightly overvalued, but nothing to write home about. I would stay flat here.

    As to your question, nobody is missing anything (apart from you, my friend :)). Just do the actual arithmetic and you'll see the light.
  7. J-Law


    How ya doing?

    Im still missing it. Added & subtracted them.
    Still "in the dark grouping around for the lightswitch." :)
  8. Mate, why you adding and subtracting, when you should be multiplying and dividing?

    Basically, it's just this:
    Today, with AUDUSD at 1.06785 and NZDUSD at 0.8205, AUDNZD is at 1.06785 / 0.8205 = 1.301463.

    Yesterday, with AUDUSD at 1.06785 + 0.0108 = 1.07865 and NZDUSD at 0.8205 + 0.0060 = 0.8265, AUDNZD was at 1.07865 / 0.8265 = 1.305082.

    Move on the day in AUDNZD is 1.301463 - 1.305082 = -0.00362. There's your 36 pips.

    EDIT: BTW, looks like this here is a typo you've made: "NZD is @ .8205 down 60 pips". You probably meant NZD at .8285, but it doesn't change the calculation.
  9. J-Law



    Thanks for th spot FX math lesson. It's very much appreciated.
    As always, I am trying to ever expand my realm of products to trade.
    Thanks again. :)

  10. No worries, mate... Have a good w/e!
    #10     Feb 10, 2012