I gave it a glance, and it looked like it was close to an all time high @ 1.27, might hot 1.28 or 1.29. But intermediate to longer term it is sure to drift back to the 30-year norm, which is like 1.12. - 1.15. Thoughts?
Ausie RBA will likely cut 1 point next week, too, putting the NZD back on top of the interest rate heap. But, being in Sydney, I gotta tell you: I hear horrible things about the NZ economy, but Oz seems to be weather things well, or as well as could be expected, and if gold makes another run could get a boost from that as well. So I am torn on an entry point. Al last year I swore the EUR would not pierce 1.50. Long term I was right but it was a very long time. Hate to see AUD make some historic parabolic run to 1.35 or something.
NZD may be paying the most but there's a reason for it. NZDUSD is looking to make relatively new lows (see attached). I wouldn't doubt that there's potential for AUDNZD to make new highs or at least reach the previous... the chart looks like a breakout may be brewing. I'm definitely going to pay more attention to this pair for the time being... see if it provides a ST pullback for a long or solid short entry after your parabolic run.
Here is my issue with shorting NZD/USD; I can recall in 2000, I believe the Kiwi hit .39 US cents to the Kiwi dollar. If if these times are worse (for the Kiwi .. one could argue that they are worse for the U certainly and that makes a low breaching .39 less likely) well, .39 could get breached. This is also what makes me nervous about the AUD/USD, back in 2000, the Aussie fell to .49. Fundamentally, AU looks stronger and the US weaker than back then. But if youare looking to touch new historic lows during tis economic downturn and rate cutting frenzy, then those are your ultimate areas of support --- long term of course; I'm not really looking at day trades. If the carry isn't to costly, I'l happily hold for three months or so and take the pain. All this above leads me to the AUD/NZD; it, historically IS just about now at an extreme; it doesn't have another 10 or 15 cents to go long-term, like the AUD/USD or the NZD/USD. It's just about there.
Actually, I was just looking at a weekly chart from 2000, and the weekly all-time high, in August 2000, was 1.33, so there may have been a brief spike that week, to 1.36, as you say. Still, you're right, this may have to play out a while, although if I were a short term trader, I would look for a pop in the NZD over the next few days as the RBA gets ready to slash rates.
Actually, I just found a 1.3413 on Sept. 6, 2000. Yeah, things could get worse, much worse, I guess. Btw, for free historical FX, I use http://www.chartflow.com/fx/historybasic.asp Great site and tool.