Discussion in 'Forex' started by oldtime, May 30, 2012.

  1. I don't know why this is so hard to understand. I've been called a dummy and even stupid, and you know after at least a thousand posts I am very sensitive to criticism.

    The way you put this on is to get neutral USD. So that's

    Long AUD/USD

    Short EUR/USD

    Long GBP/USD

    Long USD/JPY

    And then you just matingale until your profit target gets hit and take the other side.

    The funny thing is, the traders who have so much faith in their setups can't seem to get over the fact that it is just AUD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

    And you just keep doing this until you have an opinion on USD.
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    So, I guess my first question is, why do you do this again?
  3. Nobody trades those four to "get neutral" USD. It's a simple dissection. Would you trade the following to "get neutral" CHF?

    Long AUDCHF

    Long CHFJPY

    No, you'd simply buy AUDJPY. It's a bog-ass simple dissection. I would hope that anyone trading FX can handle it. Or:

    Long AUDCHF

    Long CHFJPY

    Short AUDJPY

    What's your exposure? Hint, there isn't any.
  4. don't you have better things to do than correct me? The real question was, what's going on with USD?

    Just wanted to brag a little bit, I've been having good luck in that AUD/JPY and EUR/GBP on both sides. And that will continue until USD moves.
  5. I should be sleeping, but my 8yo crawled into my bed.

    I have a problem with grid-trading, and other wastes of time and money. I don't know what netting and triangular arbs have to do with the direction of USD.

    That's cool that you're getting into basic dissection, tho.
  6. I'm just martingaling, and will continue until I hit the ultimate risk of ruin.

    I got to thinking, "What's worse? To have many small losses or one big loss?"

    You are still young and the risk of ruin is always a possibility.

    I am old and I smoke and drink, so I have slight edge on the actuarial table.

    Martingale is great if you don't live too long.
  7. If it works for you, then have at it. The value of triangular arbitrage and dissection is to reduce transaction costs/spreads and net to the actual exposure. Why trade 4 when you can trade 2? Double the spread and haircut. All pairs involve a long and a short in a base-currency, so I don't understand the need to complicate it further, especially when it's more costly to do so.
  8. otherwise, If USD starts moving, my losing positions will be larger than my winning positions and I may never be able to recover.

    So that is why I am always trying to have an opinion on USD. At the moment, as I said, my opinion is neutral.
  9. OT is playing you all.............:)

    he plays the dumb guy just to get y'all trumped up.

    just another OT thread in the forum.

    bring in the clowns.

    :D :D :D

  10. or maybe not....☺

    #10     May 30, 2012