ATVI

Interesting timing:

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/pre...gainst-illegal-mergers?utm_source=govdelivery

 

why do you think that is a good trade?

 

I'm seeing it as binary.$65 or $95.

So for the amount of potential loss of around $1500, 100 shares could make $1500 or 10x 85/95 could make $8K @$95. Just thinking terminal values. The most probable scenario before my expiration is a rough target above current but is obviously more optimistic.

Hindsight: 85/90 may have been better.

 

How much did you get for 95s? I looked at 30DTE and there wasn’t even a bid.

 

It was executed as a spread 59DTE. Note that vol may drop to single digits.

 

So is the informed assumption that the FTC WILL NOT sanction the buyout and MSFT will have to walk away? I was thinking of buying ATVI simply due to good earns but no matter how good if MSFT can't buy it then the price will drop large.