that is a lame excuse for these people because you can find a lot of charts like stock market versus GDP or unemployment etc. in the internet within minutes if you are willing to do some homework. In nearly every recession / depression the stock market bottoms while the economy is still getting worse. There is no 100% guarantee it will be the same this time but at least you get some idea about what can happen. But as you said, these people are very bussy collecting confirmations how bad the economy is and sitting on their shorts and if the market rallies against them all they do is getting even more bussy to find some confirmation on economic data that they must be right. The most stupid of them start threads on ET where they warn other traders that the rally cannot be sustainable because of the bad economy. But next week we indeed might get a dip within the bear rally what will give these perma bears some aditional hope and let them load up new shorts.
Agreed. But there is nothing like being short at the bottom of a bear market and watching the S&P rally day after day on "bad" economic news to really teach you an important lesson! Resident ET perma-bears like S2007S and his ilk appear to me to be very young, with not much trading/investing experience under their belts . . . they spend day after day posting one "cut and paste" article after another on ET that agrees with their bearish bias. It's almost like some sort of incredibly insecure need on their part to validate their self-esteem or something along those lines. It becomes a daily routine with them, searching for articles and viewpoints that agree with their own and consistently calling anyone who shares an opinion opposite of theirs, a FOOL. Rather than "listen" to the market and the price action that is occuring . . . they would much rather rationalize WHY certain price movement is occurring. Furthermore, such "methodology" does not even begin to allow for any use of technical analysis. Ever notice that the perma-bears of ET are all too happy to throw out round numbers on the Dow Jones, yet never ever delve into any kind of discussion of technical analysis that would support such a claim? I'm sorry, but this is definitely NOT the way experienced traders approach this game. No way, no how. Successful traders couldn't care less WHY a market is behaving as it is. They simply want to be on the right side of the price action and go with it. Enough said. As for how the economy often has ZERO correlation with the equity market, I wonder how the perma-bears would rationalize the FACT that the unemployment rate ( seen in the weblink below ) continued to climb to a peak of 6.3% in JUNE of 2003 even though the stock market had ALREADY BOTTOMED IN EARLY MARCH ( March 12th ) at an intra-day low of 7,397 to then rally strongly and close the year out +25%. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-rate.aspx?Symbol=USD By the time the June unemployment "peak" of 6.3% had come out in the first week of August, the Dow Jones was already > 9150. ( see weblink below for chart ) http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/DJ/2003/9/linewchart.html Even more importantly, the Dow Jones had surged above 9,000 in early June. But hey, the ET perma-bears would have been shorting the market ( in their imaginary paper-trading accounts ) and "averaging" those shorts all the way up through Dow 8,000, Dow 8,500, Dow 9,000, etc. - - - and clinging to every single negative financial media article that they could get their hands on. Anyone want to be short for over 1750 Dow Jones points? I didn't think so.
He doesn't talk about the leverage behind the scenes on the 800,000 homes already in default though. 800,000 times a value of maybe a quarter million each is 16 Billion, then that was sold off as CDO's and leveraged and then repackaged and leveraged again... again it's not transparent... is interbank lending still frozen up? If so, to what extent? I don't have a clue, if it's not made transparent somehow then nobody has a clue, not the bailout experts, not anybody..
Maybe normally, but it seems to react pretty emotionally to current events in the current market. The market moved 500 points when an announcement was made about an Obama cabinet member. Just about anything can set off a huge move lately. ~telengard
are you 100% positive that was why the market moved grasshopper? Although, the market did run 500 points when the 700 billion bailout bill was signed...oh wait
If AIG executives can spend hundreds of thousands of dollar of bailout money on spa & resort, GM CEO flying around in a private jet, and an untalented singer like Britney Spears can still earn millions, it means we're not in a credit crisis. People aren't standing in line for soup like in 1929. There's no crisis. What crisis? The malls are still packed with people shopping everywhere! Fake credit crisis. Like I said, people still have their Hummer. Oil is so cheap now I think it's going to $15 soon. I'm also still getting credit card offers every single week. There's gotta be at least one offer every week arriving in my mailbox. GM CEO is still earning millions, Ford CEO too. This country still have plenty of money. You want to see recession? Go to Ethiopia, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Bangladesh. Or even Iceland. Now that's what I call recession.
CNN Report - Holiday shoppers are spending Research firm says Black Friday sales up 3%, total $470Billion. http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/29/news/economy/holiday_shopping_sat/?postversion=2008112915 Now does this look like a recession to you? http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0811/gallery.black_friday/7.html Credit crisis my arse!